Northern Michigan Recreation Weather

My attempt at a disclaimer: Always check on the weather forecast. The weather business is imprecise. If a big storm is coming, a difference in 50 miles of the storm track can mean feast or famine with snow fall or rain or whatever else the storm has. If you are concerned with driving north, always check with the NWS Websites on the right to see what the updated weather will be and check the Michigan State Police for Road conditions. All I am doing is translating the weather forecast into something that is a little more useful for those that want a digest of whether they might have a chance to do things outdoors.

So for the update on the rest of the weekend….

Saturday, Looks like a bit of a break, but the temperatures are around freezing and many of the observations are reporting fog. So icy spots on the roads are possible. this will remain through the night.

Sunday, The day will start out with rain. The problem is that as the surface low goes by the colder air will come in. So for now the NWS office in Gaylord has freezing rain or drizzle in northeast lower and eastern upper Michigan during the evening. So watch out going to the parties on New Year’s Eve.

Monday, The low tracks through the Straits. This brings in some of the cold air for snow to the region. However, it is kind of marginal, so they are expecting a mixture of snow and rain. This, right now, doesn’t bode well for the any snow fans as the rain has a habit of melting the snow on the ground, but it won’t be terrible as some of the precitpitaion is expected to fall as snow.

Tuesday, I know that a lot of the area kids go back to school. So most will be travelling home if they don’t have kids starting school. The pattern looks like it will be dry as high pressure builds in. However, if you look at the pattern there is a distinctive northwest wind look, and knowing that most forecasts out past 2 days aren’t worth a whole lot. Stay tuned, for lake effect possibilities. However, if NWS Gaylord, doesn’t have a chance for lake effect based on the pattern, then there are probably some mitigating factors for not putting it in. It is the long range, though, things can change.

Overall for the pattern while things are cool, they are still about 10 degrees above normal and with the El Nino pattern in place, it isn’t likely to cool down enough in the near term for appreciable snow. The major cold air systems that would provide the white stuff are travelling through Hudon’s Bay in Canada with only a brief shot at snow from time to time. infact I looked at the Climate Prediction Center’s El Nino page and the water temperatures in the Pacific (near the equator) are almost 2 degrees C above normal, which is almost putting this in the strong event category. If you are looking for snow, the pattern has been such that our snow has been falling to the west of us in Colorado…

Looking forward to next weekend, the night time temperatures do fall in the lower to middle 20s so the ski restorts will be able to make snow so the downhill skiiers will probably have fun next weekend.

My attempt at a disclaimer: Always check on the weather forecast. The weather business is imprecise. If a big storm is coming, a difference in 50 miles of the storm track can mean feast or famine with snow fall or rain or whatever else the storm has. If you are concerned with driving north, always check with the NWS Websites on the right to see what the updated weather will be and check the Michigan State Police for Road conditions. All I am doing is translating the weather forecast into something that is a little more useful for those that want a digest of whether they might have a chance to do things outdoors.

An area of snow formed last night and dropped barely an inch over northern lower Michigan. Now the band of snow has stalled in the Straits. However, the forecast is still for less than an inch. The web cam at the Mackinac bridge shows the snow melting and probably accumulating not much more than an inch. The web cam at Northern Michigan Hospital shows the snow band as far south as Little Traverse Bay. Check out the radar at the NWS Gaylord website. The main impact is slick roads and lowered visibility. So beware for the evening. The snow is expected to continue overnight with less than an inch expected there. For the rest the area, it is dry with maybe some drizzle.

The forecast for New Year’s Eve looks like a wet start then a mix of snow through New Year’s day.

My attempt at a disclaimer: Always check on the weather forecast. The weather business is imprecise. If a big storm is coming, a difference in 50 miles of the storm track can mean feast or famine with snow fall or rain or whatever else the storm has. If you are concerned with driving north, always check with the NWS Websites on the right to see what the updated weather will be and check the Michigan State Police for Road conditions. All I am doing is translating the weather forecast into something that is a little more useful for those that want a digest of whether they might have a chance to do things outdoors.

So here is the outlook…

For Friday: There is a chance for snow as the low pressure system in the plains begins to move to the northeast and it brings a little spoke on energy through northern Michigan. This will bring generally light snow, as the NWS office has a 30% chance (this means that at any one point there is a 30% chance for Measurable Precipitation (Measurable meaning 0.1″ of snow or 0.01″ inch of rain) Flurries are typically trace events which are not measurable). For Travel, maybe some slick spots, but with the main highways treated, it should be easy to get here.

Saturday looks dry. As this season has progressed into a typical moderate El Nino, the cooler night will help the ski resorts so call them to see what kind of skiing is available. Otherwise, snowmobiling and cross-country skiing is out for the New Year’s festivities.

Sunday: The forecast now is for rain that during the night will change to a rain/snow mix. The coming out of the southern plains is at this time expected to be in the middle Mississippi valley. So the storm will start off wet. While you are at the parties snow may mix in, but it will probably OK to drive.

New Year’s Day: The storm heads off over Detroit which would give us cold air for snow and the NWS in Gaylord, Detroit and Grand Rapids all agree on that at least by night. The day will probably start off as a mix as the storm treks through the lower peninsula.

Tuesday: It looks like lake effect snow for the morning, then the air dries out as the low continues northeast. This means, if the scenario plays out, only a couple of inches of snow will be around.

This is a blog that to help those who love being outdoors in the northwoods of Michigan understand the weather forecasts that come out of the National Weather Service offices that serve it, specifically, around the Gaylord, MI area.

I myself live near Boyne Mountain Ski Resort. So I will report on the forecasts and explain how it will impact your outdoor activities in the area. I will try to keep it simple cover the whole area of the northern part of the lower peninsula. The reason that this says let’s try this again, is this is my second attempt at this, the first time was somewhat sucessful, but an error in learning Blogger revealed some information that unexpected. Sound vague? it was meant too. Okay, enough of that. The next post will be on the weather for New Year’s weekend. I’ll either post that later tonight or tomorrow afternoon.