Northern Michigan Recreation Weather

Here is a review of where we sit in terms of snow this week. Looking at the Snowdepth map for northern Michigan, there generally around 8 to 9 inches of snow with the big bull’s eye being the 15+ inches in eastern Antrim and northern Kalkaska counties. The trails that pass through Boyne Falls don’t look too bad right now, but take a gander at the snow mobile trail links to the right.

The forecast for the upcoming weekend continues to look good for the outdoor winter activities. The Hydromet prediction center’s Medium range forecast maps show a low or front moving through the western Great Lakes through next Monday Feb. 5. The NWS Gaylord forecast for the week looks like it will prove to end up snowing most of the week. So if you like the skiing and snowmobiling, The next weekend looks good again.

My attempt at a disclaimer: Always check on the weather forecast. The weather business is imprecise. If a big storm is coming, a difference in 50 miles of the storm track can mean feast or famine with snow fall or rain or whatever else the storm has. If you are concerned with driving north, always check with the NWS Websites on the right to see what the updated weather will be and check the Michigan State Police for Road conditions. All I am doing is translating the weather forecast into something that is a little more useful for those that want a digest of whether they might have a chance to do things outdoors. I also don’t endorse any particular place or thing. Any ads you see at the right are placed there by Google randomly.

Things got busy again this week, so I’m a little late in getting this started.

My attempt at a disclaimer: Always check on the weather forecast. The weather business is imprecise. If a big storm is coming, a difference in 50 miles of the storm track can mean feast or famine with snow fall or rain or whatever else the storm has. If you are concerned with driving north, always check with the NWS Websites on the right to see what the updated weather will be and check the Michigan State Police for Road conditions. All I am doing is translating the weather forecast into something that is a little more useful for those that want a digest of whether they might have a chance to do things outdoors. I also don’t endorse any particular place or thing. Any ads you see at the right are placed there by Google randomly.

Friday drive: There is a Winter Weather Advisory out for all of lower Michigan as an Alberta Clipper is moving through the western Great Lakes. The main concern with the advisory isn’t the snow, but the freezing drizzle afterward.

The synopsis from the NWS Gaylord, MI

.A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE STATE TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BRING
A QUICK SHOT OF ACCUMULATING SNOW TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER…
AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON.

The details, from the NWS Grand Rapids, MI (I felt they had the best discussion in general terms, for specifics read the advisory texts for GRR, APX, and DTX here.)

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANGES OVER
TO FREEZING DRIZZLE BY NOON. FREEZING DRIZZLE IS THEN EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

SIGNIFICANT ICING IS NOT EXPECTED…HOWEVER A THIN GLAZE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON SURFACES. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE
DIFFICULTIES FOR DRIVERS AND FOR PEOPLE WALKING OUTSIDE.

So for the road conditions, things could be a bit on the icy side this afternoon as the temperatures are expected to be in the lower 20s. The freezing drizzle isn’t expected to impact the snow that has fallen. It should only put a glazing on the snow. With the higher water content of this snow, there will be better base snow for snowmobiling this weekend.

The wind turns northwest tonight and gets the lake effect snow going. This will be a slow start as the colder temperatures that are needed this time of year aren’t quite there at the start, because of the warm front that just went through. Friday night and Saturday the northwest wind will bring the colder air to the region and get the snow going.

Saturday night will be the main snow making night as the winds shift to the north-northwest or just north. this will deposit more snow west of US-131. If the wind locks in for long enough, from one direction, then there could be some appreciable amounts near Traverse City, Kalkaska, and Cadillac. This is something that will have to be watched. As I like to tell people with lake effect snow, a wind shift of 10 degrees can mean large snow or no snow at all. One thing that the computer models, that provide forecast guidance to the forecasters, have the most trouble with are wind directions down to the nearest 10 degrees.

Sunday, The drive home shouldn’t be too bad, unless you drive to the Holland/Muskegon area as the snow is expected along the lakeshore. Otherwise, the snow will be most around Traverse City and Manistee.

Most of this will make the X-C skiiers and snowmobilers happy. Downhillers will continue the ski bliss and the ski resorts will continue to make snow as well.

Looking at the longer term, the 8-14 day outlook on the Climate Prediction center’s page shows below normal temperatures and near normal or slightly below normal precipitation. So for the next couple of weeks, the snow looks good for the winter sports. I had a thought earlier in the season this season could be like 1999-2000 seaon, a late start, early end. However, this El Nino/NAO pattern looks different than that year with the late season, maybe a normal/late end to the season. February will tell. but it is looking good.

The snow continues to Grow!

I just looked at the snowdepth graphic on the NWS Gaylord page and it is showing 6 to 7 inches as of 7 am on 19 Jan. The snow has continued to fall over northwest lower and the snowmobilers have been out in full force. The snow is expected to fall through Saturday, but the intensity will diminishing through the morning and into the afternoon.

My attempt at a disclaimer: Always check on the weather forecast. The weather business is imprecise. If a big storm is coming, a difference in 50 miles of the storm track can mean feast or famine with snow fall or rain or whatever else the storm has. If you are concerned with driving north, always check with the NWS Websites on the right to see what the updated weather will be and check the Michigan State Police for Road conditions. All I am doing is translating the weather forecast into something that is a little more useful for those that want a digest of whether they might have a chance to do things outdoors. I also don’t endorse any particular place or thing. Any ads you see at the right are placed there by Google randomly.

Not only do I have the time to update this everyday, there is something to talk about as well. While surfing the web tonight, the following picture came up on the NWS Gaylord website.The Brown color is for a Lake effect snow advisory. For the Boyne Falls area, which is in Charlevoix county, the forecast for Thursday night is 1 to 3 inches and Friday is for 3 to 5 inches and the forecast for Gaylord is the same. So we are looking at some sizable snow, for the region. After reading many forecast discussions, I believe the NWS Gaylord office calls this the “Big 5″ configuration, although, Leelanau county is added to it. If you look at their website as well and look in the Snow Section at the bottom is the Lake effect snow explanation and in there is this Picture of the idea where they are expecting the snow on Friday. So this is what the initial thinking is for Friday. Looking at the forecasted snowfall map this is what they are thinking. Snow people rejoice! If this pans out, and lake effect is very fickle, then a good snow dump is looking likely. Remember that a wind direction error of 5 or 10 degrees, and the computer models are often off by that much, can mean feast or famine for any given spot.

XC skiiers you should, at least in these areas have the snow to ski on. Downhillers will be happy to have some natural powder. Snowmobilers will be happy if the snow amounts over the 24 hours ending at 7pm on Friday pans out, with grooming, there might be a half way decent base for sledding.

My attempt at a disclaimer: Always check on the weather forecast. The weather business is imprecise. If a big storm is coming, a difference in 50 miles of the storm track can mean feast or famine with snow fall or rain or whatever else the storm has. If you are concerned with driving north, always check with the NWS Websites on the right to see what the updated weather will be and check the Michigan State Police for Road conditions. All I am doing is translating the weather forecast into something that is a little more useful for those that want a digest of whether they might have a chance to do things outdoors. I also don’t endorse any particular place or thing. Any ads you see at the right are placed there by Google randomly.

To start off with the snow depths are creeping up as there is a general 3-5 inches across most of northern lower and eastern upper Michigan. There are some higher spots, look at the map that the NWS Gaylord office does each morning here. If you go through the forecast maps for the week, especially the high temperatures, you will see that we will lose little snow as far as temperatures are concerned.

Okay, so Thursday we will get a little system that will bring some snow, enhanced by the lakes. With temperatures cold enough, the rare southwest wind that brings lake effect will start out during the day, then switch to west and then northwest overnight so that by Friday morning, there will be around 3 to 5 inches of snow in portions of northwest lower michigan. We then get into a pattern of what looks like Alberta Clippers through Monday at the least. So we are expecting snow showers of the lake effect and none lake effect kind through the weekend. Check out the snowmobile trail conditions on the right side of the page and keep checking the NWS Gaylord page for more information.

While I’m not sure about the amount of base for snowmobiling, the XC ski fans should be happy at this, as with some grooming the set trail will be fair to good, I would think. Cutting your on trail, though, may be a bit risky unless you know good places in the woods where there is little deadfall that would mess up your ski base.

The Downhill ski people should be estactic as it will remain cold enough to make snow and there will be several inches of new natural snow in the near future for the ski resorts northeast of Traverse City. See the Ski Michigan link to the right as well.

I’m waiting around today so I thought I would chime in with a look at the forecast for the upcoming weekend. I might be able to update a little more regularly this week as I have a few days off and I am going to begin 3rd shift for this week. Ok so I have to get this out of the way: My attempt at a disclaimer: Always check on the weather forecast. The weather business is imprecise. If a big storm is coming, a difference in 50 miles of the storm track can mean feast or famine with snow fall or rain or whatever else the storm has. If you are concerned with driving north, always check with the NWS Websites on the right to see what the updated weather will be and check the Michigan State Police for Road conditions. All I am doing is translating the weather forecast into something that is a little more useful for those that want a digest of whether they might have a chance to do things outdoors. I also don’t endorse any particular place or thing. Any ads you see at the right are placed there by Google randomly.

Now that is out of the way let’s look at the weather for the upcoming weekend. We have been receiving snow and lake effect snow showers over the last few days. The storm that passed to our south yesterday gave us a few inches of snow while up to 6 inches fell near Tawas, and West Branch. Then with north to northeast winds the lake effect snow began. If you looked closely at the radar a band of snow occurred over Traverse city, right down Grand Traverse Bay and one over Leelanau county near Maple city. It was pretty neat to see on TV 7/4 the other night.

Currently, the winds look like they are shifting becasuse the snow bands are moving over Antrim and Charlevoix counties, according to NWS Gaylord, MI radar. While I was out earlier, I saw a big cloud of snow from the snowmaking operation at Boyne Mountain, which make sense, since the temperature as I right this post it 17 degrees according to the house thermometer.

The cold temperatures are expected to stay through the weekend. So far, the warmest day will be Thursday as warmer air tries to move in. The warmest temperatures so far for the day are the upper 20s to around 30. So we should lose any snow to melting.

As far as snow fall, it looks like another 3 incher or so as the low and cold front goes by on Thursday night. It’s really hard to look at snow amounts out that far since so much, like the track of the storm, can very enough that on day looks great, and the next is small. This is the part where you need to stay tuned. However, the HPC forecast looks consistent enough that I have some confidence in the forecast. If this forecast pans out, then the lake effect snow will be pretty good again as well. So the snowmobiling could be on track for the up coming weekend. I say this with guarded optimism.

I see that the models and HPC are still going with a potential storm on Monday. So while this weekend looks good to have some snow, the following weekend, provided the snow stays and doesn’t get torn up, will be even better. Looking at the CPC 8-14 day outlook, they have Michigan in normal Temperatures and Below normal Precipitation. So we will see. I’ll try to get some regular postings in every day for the rest of the week, if time allows.

My attempt at a disclaimer: Always check on the weather forecast. The weather business is imprecise. If a big storm is coming, a difference in 50 miles of the storm track can mean feast or famine with snow fall or rain or whatever else the storm has. If you are concerned with driving north, always check with the NWS Websites on the right to see what the updated weather will be and check the Michigan State Police for Road conditions. All I am doing is translating the weather forecast into something that is a little more useful for those that want a digest of whether they might have a chance to do things outdoors. I also don’t endorse any particular place or thing. Any ads you see at the right are placed there by Google randomly.

Sorry for the late update. With ski meets and meetings and such with the family, I didn’t get a chance to get to the update. The only thing notable was the warm air that settled in on Thursday night and ate part of the snow, then the freezing drizzle event that had people sliding around. Then Saturday, There was lake effect snow around 3 inches near Traverse City. Today, the snow is starting downstate with a system that we were hoping would dump snow here, but at best will deliver a couple of inches. The good thing remains if you are a downhill skier, it will remain cold enough to make snow through most of the week with little warming during the day to melt anything.

To the snowmobiling and XC ski crowd, sorry. Unless the Lake effect from this system dumps, and since it is Lake effect, then it will be isolated to a few areas, this will continue to do little for you. Check out the week at the NOAA Graphical Forecast page here.

My attempt at a disclaimer: Always check on the weather forecast. The weather business is imprecise. If a big storm is coming, a difference in 50 miles of the storm track can mean feast or famine with snow fall or rain or whatever else the storm has. If you are concerned with driving north, always check with the NWS Websites on the right to see what the updated weather will be and check the Michigan State Police for Road conditions. All I am doing is translating the weather forecast into something that is a little more useful for those that want a digest of whether they might have a chance to do things outdoors. Also, remember, I don’t endorse any particular place to play in the snow. The ads to the right are part of Google’s Adsense and they control the content there.

Here’s what has happened over the last couple of days: The cold front came through, it brough some wet sloppy snow first then as the colder air continued to pour in, the lake effect snow machine got started. This allowed some snow to pile up, with a general 3 to 5 inches across most of northern lower and eastern upper Michigan. This is a good start to the return of winter. The snowmobiling community will be happy that there is promise to some of the season.

The downhill people are really happy as not only did they get several inches of natural snow, but also, they have been making snow as temperatures for the past couple of days have been in the lower 20s. Boyne Mountain has been going for a while. I was at Boyne Highlands yesterday and they were making snow, not to mention Nubs Nob as I could see the snow drifting over the ski resort. So, I’m sure that most of the region is making snow.

Cross-country ski people will be somewhat happy as the some of the snow will be good to ski on, but it’s still not great yet.

So here is the outlook for the weekend:

Currently, as temperatures rise on Thursday initially, the cold air comes back into the region and Thursday night the NWS has about and inch to an inch and a half. So far, this looks like it will continue into Friday before the front moves east and the cold air takes over the entire western Great Lakes. The cold air is expected to remain and will be reinforced on Sunday. The NWS at Gaylord has a chance for snow showers from Friday night on through Monday. This should give hope to the snowmobilers and CC skiers. Downhillers will continue to smile with the snow that will continue to be made on Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures will briefly touch 40 on Thursday and then fall to the mid 30s on Friday and the mid 20s on Saturday, Sunday, Monday.

Monday, since it is MLK day, I expect that most people will stay an extra day or so. They won’t be disappointed. I’ll try to keep it updated the next couple of days.

My attempt at a disclaimer: Always check on the weather forecast. The weather business is imprecise. If a big storm is coming, a difference in 50 miles of the storm track can mean feast or famine with snow fall or rain or whatever else the storm has. If you are concerned with driving north, always check with the NWS Websites on the right -> to see what the updated weather will be and check the Michigan State Police for Road conditions. All I am doing is translating the weather forecast into something that is a little more useful for those that want a digest of whether they might have a chance to do things outdoors.

Okay, so the main overview, if you are snowmobiler or cross-country skier, is pretty bleak for the next week. Looking at the Michigan overview graphic, I will refer to it, the high temperatures remain in the upper 30s to lower 40s through the week with rain beginning the weekend and a mix of rain and snow by the end of the weekend. The chances that it does snow in northern Michigan are at best 40% at this point in time. This means that the forecast for any appreciable snow to ride or cc ski on is near zero.

If you are a downhill skier, the forecast isn’t bleak, but it isn’t terrible either. The low temperature as of late weren’t great for making snow, but some areas have been able to make some and the forecast is for some overnight lows to get into the middle 20s. I can see Boyne mountain from my house and it has had people skiing on it for the past week with some runs open. Check the Ski conditions link on the right side of the page for more info on the ski area of your choice.