Archive for April, 2007

Okay, so the weather looks like it is finally heading into a spring like mode. Temperatures through the rest of this week looks like it will remain in the middle 50s, the normal high temperatures for this weekend are ranging from the middle 50s in the Soo to around 60 in Northern Lower. The only thing to watch out for this weekend will be the rain showers on the travel up on Friday and the chance for showers and thunderstorms on Sunday. All the rain looks to be run of the mill so far.
Looking further into the future, the Climate Prediction Center has the Great Lakes region in above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation. So the weather looks like it will be pretty nice for the next couple of weekends. Just watch out burning stuff at your cabins, cottages, and houses. There are still some restrictions on burning up north. Check out the burning permits here.

If there are any changes I’ll update the blog as soon as I can. Otherwise, have a great weekend!

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No need to tell everyone, the weather is great this weekend. Just be careful if you are burning things this weekend. It will be extra dry and on Sunday, with temperatures approaching 80 degrees, and the winds blowing at 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

I’ll be back mid week with a better look at next weekend.

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So for you hard core outdoor winter people out there, this weekend may be one more chance to get some more fun in before the season changes…whenever that’s going to be. I would think that I should be talking about hiking, biking, 4-wheeling, and such, but no, the jet stream continues to allow that arctic air down into the eastern part of the U.S.

So here we go with storm #1:

Weather Hazards for Gaylord, MI
…WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN…WITH HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NEW SNOW AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES OR GREATER ARE POSSIBLE BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

And why is there a Winter Storm Watch?



Weather Hazards for Gaylord, MI
URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
331 PM EDT TUE APR 10 2007

…MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW ON THE WAY FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN…

.A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HEAD NORTHEAST TOWARD MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVE THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN BY THURSDAY MORNING. AN AREA OF HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM…IMPACTING NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

So this results in a forecast for the Gaylord area and pretty much everywhere else that looks like this:

7-Day Forecast for Latitude 45N and Longitude -84.65W
Wednesday: Periods of snow, mainly after 2pm. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 36. East wind between 5 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible.

Wednesday Night: Periods of snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 28. Northeast wind around 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 6 inches possible.

Thursday: Snow likely, mainly before 2pm. Cloudy, with a high near 38. North wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Here’s Storm #2:

Then we have the next storm that is poised for the weekend. However, it may not all get up here as the temperatures are looking to be warm enough for rain maybe mixed with snow. So we will have to wait and see. Here are the maps for the extended part of the forecast:

The main question will be if there is too much dry air from Canada from the high pressure system that on Sunday is sitting on James Bay. If there is just enough, the precipitation could cool the air enough for all snow. If there is too much, the precipitation will be limited north of say M-55. If there is too little, then there will be a mix of snow and rain or just rain. This is one of those storms where the path will make a big difference, especially this time of year.

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Things worked out a little better this evening for me to get a forecast in before the weekend. The radar at the NWS Gaylord, MI says it all. Not just what is going on, but what will happen as well. Take a look at the forecast map for Saturday morning and compare it to the current weather map and compare it to Sunday’s weather. If you notice there is an area of low pressure that sits to the east of the Great Lakes and High pressure to the west. Couple that with very cold air that we typically see in January, and move it across Lakes Superior and Michigan and you end up with Lake Effect snow. For more information on how much has fallen go to this news story that the NWS office has up on its site.
So what does that mean for outdoor sports? Well, in some areas, like near Kalkaska, Traverse City, and Cadillac, some people might be able to pull there snowmobiles out. Near Gaylord, they need a bit more snow from my experience. We might get enough here in Boyne Falls by Sunday as well, if the snow keeps up like it is.
XC-skiing can make a come back, and some downhill places as well. Boyne Mountain still had skiers on it before this snow began earlier this week. I’m assuming that they will be open for business, so call ahead, just in case.
So the snow has put a hold on the spring/summer sports for the time being. In fact the computer models are saying that there could be another storm that will bring more snow next weekend. I’m glad my son found the climbing wall in TC!
My attempt at a disclaimer: Always check on the weather forecast. The weather business is imprecise. If a big storm is coming, a difference in 50 miles of the storm track can mean feast or famine with snow fall or rain or whatever else the storm has. If you are concerned with driving north, always check with the NWS Websites on the right to see what the updated weather will be and check the Michigan State Police for Road conditions. All I am doing is translating the weather forecast into something that is a little more useful for those that want a digest of whether they might have a chance to do things outdoors. I also don’t endorse any particular place or thing. Any ads you see at the right are placed there by Google randomly.

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