Archive for October, 2007

The lake effect rain continues over northern Michigan as the low to the northeast continues to slowly move away.

By Saturday evening, the rain will be out of northern lower and isolated to eastern upper Michigan near Sault Ste. Marie.
The rain has be fairly light, so the leaves haven’t been forced off of the trees, although I have to say that this year’s color has not been very impressive. The trees seem like they are having problems with the change over. Probably due to the dry summer. Most of the leaves look like they want to shrivel up rather then change and look pretty.

Otherwise, the weekend will be a touch more damp than originally thought the other day.

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As the Swath in the middle of the lower peninsula shows high color, however with a couple of windy rainy days, some of the color is suffering. However, everywhere else, there is still green and the leaves are on still on, like here in our part of Charlevoix county. In fact, as I drove to Petoskey this morning, there is still a some green with a little orange mixed in. The look of the trees makes me think that either this weekend or the next will be it for the best color.

Now for the weather this weekend:

First the temperatures: High temperatures will be in the middle to upper 50s this weekend, with Friday expected to be around 50 degrees. So we are now around normal for temperatures.

Next the weather: with the cold temperatures Friday the Lake Michigan side of the state may see Lake effect Rain showers. However, after that Saturday and Sunday will be dry as high pressure takes control.

A little further out: Through the middle of next week, the weather continues to be dry. So there could be some good color touring through the mid week. The CPC forecast for 8-14 days is showing above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation. I’m not sure about that myself, I have a gut feeling that the temperatures will be closer to normal, but I have nothing to back that up with. The drier than normal seems right, though.

I see that out in Colorado, that they are starting the ski season the earliest ever. The snow season will be here soon, if the mountains are seeing it early. I know that the longer range forecasts are for warmer than normal due to La Nina, however, a friend of mine that watches the extended forecast weather chat boards, said that the student that nailed the forecast last year (and now works for an energy company this year), is saying that we would be in for a colder than normal pattern for the majority of the winter. I’m looking forward to the snow this year for some reason. So I’m hoping he’s right. Not to mention that I love it when the media hype machine on global warming gets thrown a curve ball, by having an anomalous season in the cold direction.

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Update: Here is a link for some color satellite shots from the other day. If you look at eastern upper Michigan you can see the orange of the changing leaves. Northern lower Michigan shows a fair amount of green, but there is a hint of orange just to the west of Gaylord.

The Color is coming!

The colors are really beginning to show around here. The map to the left gives you the idea of how things are progressing. The green, orange, red, purple and yellow collage that I like is still around especially as I drive from Boyne Falls to Boyne City. I heard someone remark at a soccer game last night that the lakeshore is lagging. That would make sense, since the air temperature is warmer near the lake during this time of year and the trees decide to keep making chlorophyll.

Okay, now for the weather.

When I awoke there were some clouds. The forecast for Friday is for increasing clouds especially north of M-32 and for a 30% chance of rain in the afternoon. There is a 40% chance of rain in eastern upper Michigan today as well. This is due to a front that pushed through rather dry, but is expected to stall north of Sault Ste. Marie and get an added bonus of moisture today.

This front remains stalled north of the area through Sunday night. So there is a chance for rain through Monday as the front meanders around northern Michigan.

High temperatures through the weekend will be ranging from the upper 70s to the lower 80s each day over the weekend, with the lows in the lower 60s.

So to wrap it up, Comfortable temperatures for viewing, the rain will be a problem mainly north of M-32 and then it should be rather scattered. The sun will be hidden most of the time which will make the viewing a bit less exciting.

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