Northern Michigan Recreation Weather

As the Holidays wind down, I thought that I would update things a bit. Here in northern Michigan, we will probably miss out on the big snow with the next system as that looks like it will fall south of a line from Saginaw to Benton Harbor. However, the main concern will be today near the Straits. Looking at this radar capture this morning: If you look over northern Lake Michigan you see a band of snow, that will affect the regions along the Lake Michigan shoreline. So the NWS in Gaylord has issued a Lake Effect Snow Advisory:

MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-CHARLEVOIX-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ST. IGNACE...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX222 AM EST MON DEC 31 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THISAFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECTSNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON.

LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES WILL IMPACT THE STRAITS REGION ANDTHE US-31 CORRIDOR OF NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN BETWEEN MACKINAWCITY AND CHARLEVOIX THROUGH MID MORNING. LIGHT TO MODERATEINTENSITY SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOONHOURS. SNOWFALL TOTALS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY ARE EXPECTEDTO RANGE FROM 3 TO 7 INCHES...THOUGH MAY BE LOCALLY HIGHER NEARTHE STRAITS OF MACKINAC.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECASTTHAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN ANDEXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING.

So If you are in this area near the lake beware. Otherwise, the concern for the night when everyone goes out to party, is the cold north wind, and how it creates snow as well. Here’s a look from the Hazardous Weather Outlook product from NWS Gaylord:

THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO IMPACTTHE TYPICAL SNOWBELT AREAS FROM THE NEW YEARS DAY INTO WEDNESDAYTIME FRAME.

So take it easy overnight tonight and on 1 Jan. as you are traveling either home or to all of the football parties.

Looking Farther out, to next weekend, the warm air is looking to make a return as the jet stream sets up to the west of the Great Lakes so that the snow will end up in the Dakotas and northern Minnesota. We may be losing snow next weekend. I’ll return Wednesday to start updating for then.

With all of the snow that has fallen across northern Michigan yesterday, the region has gone back into having enough snow to do all things dealing with snow. This will continue as the low pressure system that brought the snow, will now usher in colder air. If you follow this blog, you now that when colder air moves over the Great Lakes, we tend to get lake effect snow. That is just what we are starting to get. The snow bands haven’t completely formed, but looking at NWS Marquette’s radar, the lake effect is beginning to get organized. There is some hint of snow bands getting organized on the NWS Gaylord radar as well. So, if you like the snow then this weekend is for you. Just be careful in your travels as the Michigan State Police Road Conditions website shows. Right now the west side of the state is expected to receive up to 2 additional inches of snow on top of the 4-8 inches that fell during the day.

For the ice fishermen out there, here is a link to a story about the early start to the ice season and I found this link at AAA about the ice conditions and the fishing around the state.

The good news is that through the next week, and the new year for that matter, is that colder temperatures and snow are in the forecast.

Looking out further, the 8-14 day outlook is really pessimistic about the weather. I’m not sure whether to believe it. We did just have one warm up only to be followed by more snow. We’ll have to see.

Here is the update for the storm that moves through the region today and Monday. It is beginning to look like the big things will be tonight. Monday will get some lake effect.

Snow is developing in northern lower Michigan. Winds are howling as the highest winds are beginning to effect locations near Traverse City.

Christmas Day, is still looking partly sunny.

If you have been looking at the graphic from yesterday, it has changed. I had the link to the specific graphic, which as the changes in the forecast are made so does the graphic and you can’t see what the previous version is. To the left is the weather story graphic from NWS Gaylord, MI as of Today (12/22/07). As you can see, things will get messy on Sunday as the storm passes and the cold air comes back into the region. Looking at the NWS Gaylord Website, the west side of the lower peninsula will have the most snow and problems. This looks like it is due to lake enhancement of the snow off of Lake Michigan.

For today through Sunday morning, the weather will remain wet, with rain and drizzle falling over the snow pack. This makes for messy skiing for downhill. While the dampness is no fun, the snow won’t be bad for CC skiing or snowmobiling. Although the trails could get torn up fast as the rain shrinks the snow pack.

Sunday afternoon and on into Monday, the rain will change back to snow. The winds are expectd to be cranking with Blowing and Drifting snow expected. The snow amounts are expected to come up quickly again. Looking at the the snow graphics page from NWS Gaylord, here is the graphic from Sunday which is as far out that they can reliably forecast amounts for:There is some question that the east side of the state could get more as well, but the main concern will the the wind once some new snow falls. This will lower visibility, making travel hazardous. In that light, go to the State Police Winter Travel conditions to see how the roads are. Here is the link to northern lower Michigan.

Christmas Day, looks like it will partly cloudy with no messy weather.

Wednesday through Friday, it looks like we have no real big weather maker, but there is a chance of snow each day starting Wednesday night. The temperatures will be in the lower to mid 30s for highs and around 20 for lows through the week.

With the changing system, I’ll try to post at least once a day to keep you up-to-date. Don’t forget to go to the NWS Weather sites for the most up-to-date forecasts.

P.S.
I think I got all my shopping done!

As with others, I have some more Christmas shopping to do, but the weather for the weekend is going to be a mess. Christmas day looks nice though with partly cloudy skies. Sunday and Monday, are the two messy days with the rain changing to snow and then snow and blowing snow will be likely. It’s hard to nail down accumulations, however, take a look at this graphic and keep coming back to the NWS Gaylord, MI site for updates. Merry Christmas.

Looks like an error around the Atlanta area as I think that there should be a few inches of snow out that way. Otherwise…

It will be cold to start on Friday night, however, with lots of dry air the lake effect snow is winding down. Some places received snow overnight and part of the day today, so there will be some fresh fluff on the snowmobile trails.

Downhill ski-wise, the resorts are making snow this morning, and I’m assuming today as well with the temperatures just making it into the lower 20s or just the upper teens in some places. Check with your favorite resort, but I think that more runs will be open than were last weekend.

Cross country-wise, the snow on the trails should be good, and I just read this article this morning that the DNR might get a chance to groom CC ski trails in the north after all.

Temperatures for Saturday and Sunday are expected to remain in the 20s, so the snow isn’t going anywhere.

There will be a storm on Saturday night and Sunday, downstate, that will give us a chance for snow. The main area this will impact will be in northeast lower especially, along and east of M-33 where there could be some lake enhancement from Lake Huron.

The drive downstate on Sunday will be a little more problematic with the snow falling around the Detroit area on Sunday.

In the way extended…the CPC 8-14 day outlook is a bit discouraging. However, with a storm track that takes the above normal precipitation to the south and east of the region, I’m not sure how the temperatures will be above normal along the Canadian border from the Great Lakes and to the west. I would think that the Great Lakes would be below normal. Time will tell…

The snow will continue to fall in portions of northwest lower Michigan on Friday and through to Sunday it looks like. Most of this will be from lake effect snow.

In northeast lower, the snow amounts will be lighter as most of the snow expected to fall will be lake effect, except on Sunday when a storm system, that will mainly affect southeast lower Michigan, will move through and add some snow to the east side of the state.

In eastern upper Michigan, lake effect snow will be around through the weekend as well.

Check out the snow graphics at NWS Gaylord, MI website.

Temperatures for the weekend will generally be at or below 30 for highs and in the teens for lows.

So the weekend looks good for winter fun as the snow will fall and the snow depths around most of northern Michigan look good.

Looking a little farther out…the 8 to 14 day outlook looks good for more snow and normal temperatures as the western Great Lakes are expected near normal for precipitation and temperatures. So Christmas break is looking good for coming up north.

Looking at the current snow depths, and a few of the snowmobiling sites most of the trails, if not all are open. The weather should remain favorable for the weekend.

The forecast looks good for more snow, although it will be light snow as no significant systems are expected, well maybe by Monday morning, but most people should be home by then.

High temperatures are expected to approaching normal which ranges from upper 20s (near Sault Ste. Marie) to the mid 30s (near Traverse City).

Low temperatures are expected to be around 20 most of the week, so snow making at the ski resorts will continue, plus any snow that they receive through the week.

My guess is that Cross country trails would be open as well, but I haven’t had a chance to look around at that. However, if there is enough snow for snowmobiling, then there is enough for CC skiing.

I’ll see about getting another update out around Thursday.