Northern Michigan Recreation Weather

I’m having trouble uploading a graphic to the blog, so here’s the worded description.

For Friday through Sunday, high pressure will be over the western Great Lakes. There will be a fair amount of dry air with the high so the idea is that no lake effect is expected. We are getting into the latter part of winter and with the Great Lakes near 32F, when we get warmer high temperatures, that means that the instability of atmosphere is less over Lakes Michigan and Superior. This in turn means that fewer clouds are produced and hence little lake effect snow. That’s kind of a thumbnail sketch on how the Great Lakes affects our weather.

Earlier in the season, with the water temperatures so warm, it was easy to get lake effect snow with the same high temperatures that we are expecting this weekend (the temperatures will come up soon). However, now we have to be very cold to even generate clouds over the lakes. This means that winter is almost over.

Okay, so now for the forecast(I took the easy way out and edited the NWS forecast for the weekend):

Friday: Mostly cloudy in the afternoon. Highs will be in the lower to mid 20s. .
Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a lows around 0.
Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a highs in the mid to upper 20s.
Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a lows around 10.
Sunday: Sunny, with a highs in the lower to mid 30s.

This will be a great weekend for the resorts or just getting out, not too cold, no major storm to hamper travel in or out of the area, and last but not least, plenty of sunshine to make people happy.

Looking at the following weekend, the 8-14 day outlook has most of the western Great Lakes in below normal temperatures and we are in the edge of above normal precipitation and below normal precipitation. So we will see how this pans out. Average high temperatures are in the upper 20s (eastern upper) to the mid 30s (northern lower near M-55) during that week.

Have fun this weekend!

If you look at the previous post, one of the graphics that I posted was the surface forecast map for Sunday morning. Wednesday morning, when I wrote the last post, that system didn’t seem like much. However, the latest computer models are showing some significant changes. So much so, that the main weather story put out by NWS Gaylord, has some significant weather on it. The graphic, I think, says it all. The only problem is that could creep in is that Sunday is the 3rd day (roughly 72 hours out), and that means that there could be some uncertainty with the track of the system. It has been noted that several of the past storms have ended up with tracks that were north and west of the originally forecasted track. The question for the forecaster is whether this one will be the same way. Looking at the computer tracks of the last few runs, it doesn’t look like the track has changed by much, but enough that instead of all snow, we are looking at snow over most of northern lower and freezing rain near West Branch, Gladwin, Standish, and East Tawas. This could be significant for your trip home, if you live in southeast lower. Although if we get heavy snow, there could be heavy snow in southwest lower. I guess it’s good that a lot of schools are off for President’s Day.

Looking at the snow depth graphic, there is a healthy amount of snow, especially in the center of the lower peninsula. There will be more by Friday as a couple of systems will bring light snow to the region over the next day or two (as pictured in the weather story graphic).

Friday should be a great travel day with high pressure over northern lower and eastern upper Michigan. The only thing to watch out for is the kink in the isobars in our area. This usually signifies that the heat from the Great Lakes is helping to lower the air pressure somewhat, which means that there could be lake effect snow. However, by Saturday, there will be snow over northern Michigan as low pressure moves out of Alberta and into Wisconsin. This is an Alberta Clipper system and will probably bring a quick couple inches of snow on Saturday night and Sunday. By the time it is through the region, in the afternoon, there will probably be lake effect snow.

So for the snowmobilers and cross-country (nordic) skiers, continue to expect good trail conditions out through this weekend. The downhill(alpine) skiers, expect excellent conditions as the ski areas continue to make snow to supplement the natural snow. As I type this at 4 am on Wednesday, Boyne Mountain is lit up with clouds of snow in the air as it make more snow for their ski area.

Looking a little further out, CPC is still insisting that things will begin to warm up by the following week. The only problem is that they have been saying that for the past week already. So, take the 8-14 day graphic with a grain of salt as always.

Okay, this isn’t much of a forecast, things got a little busy. However, if you have been paying attention to the news, we are in the midst of another major winter storm with wind and snow and cold temperatures. Wind and visibility are the biggest problems around northern Michigan.

The wind chill will be the biggest problem with being outdoors today with the wind chill temperatures between -25F and -20F. The frostbite potential is better currently.

Otherwise, as we look at the rest of this week, more cold temperatures and snow. So next weekend will be good for more outdoor winter sports. Especially, if the weather is quiet which it looks like right now. I’ll try to get the report out on time this next week.