Northern Michigan Recreation Weather

From the maps, you can guess what will happen for part of this weekend. Severe weather looks like it will affect northern Michigan. As of this post, which may be my last for the weekend, rain looks like a sure bet. There is a slight risk of severe weather. What does that mean? That there will be Severe Thunderstorm and tornado Watches (remember that a watch means conditions are right for severe weather) will probably occur within the slight risk area. However, it doesn’t mean that severe weather will necessarily occur.

Okay, with that out of the way what are we looking at? Definitely there will be rain showers and thunderstorm from Friday through Sunday. The most active weather looks like Saturday night into Sunday. So Be careful being outdoors during Saturday night. Sunday looks like there will be the some thunder in the morning, then a break, then more thunderstorms possible with rain. However, Sunday looks less like a severe weather day, just rain with some thunder.

Temperatures will be on a downward slide with around 80 for Friday, mid 70s for Saturday, and upper 60s for Sunday.

So the main thing is to watch out for Saturday night in northern Michigan, that seems to be when the best conditions for severe weather is expected.

Looking at the weekend for the 4th, the 8-14 day outlook is for below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation. I hope it gets better as we get closer to the 4th.

The west side of the state was good for getting outside last weekend. Those in the east, not so much. Well the story remains the same as an area of low pressure is expected to move into the region and then kind of stall.

For the weekend we are looking at partly to mostly cloudy skies, with a 30 to 40% chance of rain on each day. Temperatures will be in the 70s. In fact, Friday will be in the upper 70s, Saturday, in the mid 70s and Sunday, in the lower 70s.

Of course, keep in mind that the forecast will probably change in the coming days, so stay tuned.

For the Fourth of July, the 8-14 day outlook is below normal temperatures and below normal precipitation.

So the weekend is finally just around the corner! If you are going to be outdoors, the bad news is that there will be rain this weekend. The good news is that it won’t be on all the time. The timing on this system is kind of subtle, so there are some model differences.

One model has lower probabilities then the other. One would suggest that it is dry to a point, while the other is rather wet. It figures. So here’s how I see it…

Friday, mainly a dry day. There could be a shower or two as a weak little system moves through. The high temperature will be in the mid 70s.

Saturday, This is the tricky forecast. It looks like as a cold front comes through, we will get some thunderstorms. So bring a raincoat or umbrella. It is possible for a thunderstorm to spit out some hail. The Storm Prediction Center has our area in a “See Text” area, which means that nothing will be organized, but they can’t rule out anything severe. In this case they are talking about large hail. High temperatures will be in the mid 70s again.

Sunday, the models look as if they will try and dry out again. Since the cold front will be through the temperatures will fall to around 70.

This will be the last update for the weekend. I’ll see what I can do about trying to keep this amount of blogging up for next week or two; especially, with the 4th of July coming up. One thing to look forward to the Climate Prediction center has above normal temperatures and normal precipitation in the 8-14 day outlook that ends on the 3rd of July.

As expected, the forecast got a little wetter. There is now a chance of rain on Sunday. On the bright side, temperatures are still warmer, with the highs in the mid 70s Saturday and lower 70s on Sunday. The rain on Saturday is now with the chance of thunderstorms, so if the front comes through fast enough, the rain may be contained to a portion of the day.

So the forecast is for a chance of showers and thunderstorms on Saturday with highs in the mid 70s. The Sunday forecast is for a chance of showers with highs in the lower 70s.

We’ll have to see how the NWS looks at the new HPC guidance, but the new stuff this morning is looking like we will be cool and showery probably for Saturday. Not a great thing for the weekend, but not terrible.

Temperatures by HPC are done like this: They look at the computer models and determine which one is looks th best, and blend in the others as they determine might fit, or be a good compromise. Based on that, they look at the MEX numbers which are statistically derived temperatures based on one of the computer models. They then, based on the pattern that they see, the MEX numbers, and climatology; come up with the High temperatures, Low temperatures, and Probability of Precipitation (PoP).

In this case the later days in the forecast are pushed closer to climatology, since it typically is better at verifying at longer ranges. So if that makes sense, my guess is that through this week, you will see the high temperatures for this weekend dip into the 60s. Right now, the temperatures are for the lower 70s. Which doesn’t bode well for getting out on the lake to ski, or hike, unless you enjoy those temperatures.

The other thing to remember is that there is a 40% chance of rain showers. Looking at the maps of the fronts that I have for Saturday and Sunday, the pattern that is evolving is one that we in northern Michigan are dealing with today. An area of low pressure that is sitting nearby, cooling temperatures and making it rain.

See a little of the similarity? I’m keeping my fingers crossed for the temperatures to stay up, and that the rain holds off, but the current pattern isn’t very promising.

So the forecast as of today is Saturday a chance of rain showers Highs in the lower 70s. Sunday, Mostly cloudy (I think there is a chance of rain) and highs around 70.

I’m going to start early this week. It’s part of a selfish thing, in that I will be out this weekend.

So now for the forecast…Grant it, that it is almost 5 days or so out, but the computer models have been consistently showing mid 70s temperatures for this weekend the last few days and that it would be dry. That is changing. Today, the computer models show temperatures trending downward a bit and that there is now a chance for rain showers on Saturday.

Sunday is still looking dry says the NWS in Gaylord, but if the timing of the front changes much it could on Friday or Sunday. Right now, the front doesn’t look that imposing, and the SPC 4-8 day outlook is that the probability will be too low for severe weather. However, as I have said before, extended range forecasting can change from day to day, but right now things look quiet.

If it’s any consolation for those outdoors enthusiasts for the following week, the precipitation outlook is below normal. So those who like to camp, hike, boat, etc. with no precipitation, the outlook is hopeful. I’ll be back midweek to update the forecast.

I missed the Friday stuff, so here is the weekend.

Saturday, most of the day will be dry, however, along the Lake Michigan shoreline and eastern upper Michigan, the chance of thunderstorms increases so that Saturday night and Sunday we will have scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some of these thunderstorms may be severe, as the Storm Prediction Center has us outlooked for Saturday night and Sunday.

Temperatures on both days will be in the 70s.

So for being outdoors, Saturday looks good for the day, but the evening looks a little iffy, as does Sunday all day.

For next weekend, it’s beginning to look dry and really nice. That’s great, because I’ll be outside all weekend next week.

The 8-14 day outlooks is looking drier with below normal precipitation and below normal temperatures. So the next couple of weekends will have less rain and cooler temperatures. We shall see.

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The computer models have been in a flip-flop mood this week so my early forecast is now a load of mulch.

Looking at the forecast for today(Friday) and tonight, there is a chance for severe weather late in the afternoon and tonight.
Saturday, the cold front is through and high pressure moves in at least giving dry weather for the day. Saturday night looks like there could be a chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Sunday is looking more likely for rain as another front moves into the region and stalls over northern Michigan.

So I see the NWS Gaylord graphic is for this weekend and is what I have been talking about. Warm and humid. Rain expected Friday night and Sunday.

This is not looking good for camping into Sunday, but Saturday doesn’t look bad. Temperatures will be in the upper 80s on Saturday and the upper 70s and lower 80s on Sunday. So it looks like summer has finally started.

Next week is looking similar with temperatures in the upper 70s and the chance of rain.

The 8-14 day outlook is a little more pessimistic with below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation. So we may be looking at something a little cooler than this week with more rain. We’ll see.