Northern Michigan Recreation Weather

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Just when you think you know something, but you don’t. Just as I think I put out a good preview of the weekend, it totally changed. It look like the weekend won’t be as rainy as once thought and the 8-14 day outlook is looking better.

The models are now claiming that a weak cold front will move through on Friday night and Saturday morning, and bring rain. Then high pressure for the rest of Saturday through Sunday. High temperatures are expected to be around 80 most of the weekend with Sunday expected to be the coolest day as the cooler air moves into northern Michigan.

So doing things outdoors will be pretty good this weekend.

So now the 8-14 day outlook is looking much better now, with the below normal precipitation and above normal temperatures. So the following weekend has the possibility of being a great outddoor weekend as well.

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link to Mevio page

Okay, the forecast for the weekend wasn’t bad. The weather however, was a little iffy for parade watching. We got drenched at Alpenfest in Gaylord.

Anyway, I was perusing the 8-14 day outlook and the current 7 day outlook and they both look eerily familiar.

First the 7 day outlook is for a chance of showers and thunderstorms for the whole weekend. That could change, but seems reasonable given the pattern that we have been in the last few weeks, cool and wet.

Second the 8-14 day is advertising above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation. Well, hate to tell the CPC, but that was the forecasts that they had last week for this week. There is one thing I have learned studying meteorology: If you are in a persistant pattern (like a drought or like a wet pattern) don’t forecast the opposite until it happens. In this case we are wet and cool, well close to normal temperatures and above normal precipitation. CPC insists that there is a pattern change, but it hasn’t happened yet. SoI’m going to go out on a limb for now and say that the next two weekends will be near normal or below normal temperaturewise, and we will continue to have chances for showers and thunderstorms.

That’s the preview. I’ll have the graphics, links and podcast for you Wednesday night as usual. So until tomorrow!! Have a good time outdoors!

The upcoming weekend will be kind of a hit and miss type of weather weekend. Daytime looks to be good right now, as the front that will cause the problems for being outdoors, will be moving through northern Michigan at night. So that could be a little damp for camping, but if you are out during the day, you will probably not see anything. However, this is all convection, so this forecast may change at a moments notice, so make sure you check out the NWS Gaylord site for the latest forecast.

So The cold front causes problems on Friday night, and then looks to be to far south by Saturday morning to do anything. Sunday, the front moves back north as a warm front, with the low pressure system in western upper Michigan. So showers and thunderstorms will be possible through out the weekend, especially Sunday. High temperatures on each day look to be around 80 degrees with the low temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s each night. It will also be humid.

As we look a little farther out the 8-14 day outlook is for above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation. So maybe the following weekend will be a little less wet. We will see.

Download mp3 (podcast)
Website of Pl@sticsoul
link to Mevio page

I had some technical problems with the graphics yesterday. Today, I’m updating the forecast. Friday and Saturday are still the same, but Sunday could have the chance of rain. The map to the left shows that the Low pressure system is over the region. Part of this is due to Bertha slowing down the train of storm systems. So if this map is right, then there will be a chance of showers, probably, and few thunderstorms as the cold is pushing its way in here.

So the Friday and Saturday forecast will remain with the chance of showers and thunderstorms with high temperatures in the 80s. Sunday looks like the chance of showers with temperatures in the 70s.

The key to what happens this weekend will be how fast Bertha moves out of the way in the Atlantic.

Download mp3 (podcast)
Website of Pl@sticsoul
link to Mevio page

This will be a weekend that you may see rain, but then again, if it rains it will stop by Saturday night. Currently, the forecast is for scattered showers and thunderstorms on Friday and Saturday, then high pressure builds into the region and clears out Saturday night and Sunday. The upside is that Friday and Saturday will be in the 80s. Sunday highs will be in the 70s. Because the front is slow to move in, I may have to update the forecast Wednesday night and Thursday night.

So, Friday through Saturday, scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. with temperatures in the 80s. The percentage of rain is 30 or 40% which I am fond of telling people that there is a 60 or 70% chance of nothing happening. Stay tuned.

As we look further out, the temperatures are expected to be above normal for the following weekend, and above normal precipitation. This may mean that it will be warm and humid for the following weekend.

As I update the forecast, I will try to update the podcast as well. Podcast you ask? If you subscribe to the RSS feed, you would have noticed, especially with if you use Google reader, that there was a mp3 file attached. If you played it, you heard me give the forecast. This is a first step. I am going to try to unite it with a slide show at times. I was going to try video, I may still try, but one thing at a time.

Download mp3 (podcast)
Website of Pl@sticsoul
link to Mevio page

I love when there is a holiday and we get the right weather for it. In this case for Independence day and the weekend, the weather will be warm and sunny. This goes great for the fireworks displays and parades. If you are wondering where to find the places for parades and fireworks, follow this link to the TRAVERSE, Northern Michigan’s Magazine, website.

I put the image of the Friday morning forecast map on the website so that you can see pretty that we will have the proverbial Big Blue H over the western great lakes. With all of the rain that we have gotten over the past month, this is a great time for the rain to stop. (See also this link.)

So the forecast is pretty simple. Sunny to Partly cloudy skies on Friday through Sunday. Temperatures will start out in the lower to mid 70s on Friday and warm to the upper 70s to lower 80s on Sunday.

So go out and enjoy the weather this weekend!