Northern Michigan Recreation Weather

On my Twitter feed, I was asked what the weather will be like for the youth conference in Gaylord, MI next weekend (7-9 Nov.). Well, if you like snow then rejoice! If you don’t, I’m sorry.

The current forecast for Friday from the NWS in Gaylord (the forecast only goes out 7 days) is Friday: A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 44.

I was able to look at some long range models and they tell a few different scenarios, but they all end with at the least a mix of rain and snow, and mostly snow at that. However, as I always point out to friends, this is a 7-9 day forecast. The predictability is up in the air that far out.

A case in point was today’s forecast of the cold front passing through the region. 7 days ago, it looked like we may get rain, but as Friday drew closer, it became more and more probable that it would be a dry, cold front passing through, and look at the result.

Okay, so here’s my prelim, which will be updated on Tuesday as I typically do:

Friday, a chance of rain and snow showers, High in the mid 40s. Friday night, chance of snow showers. Lows in the upper 20s. Saturday, chance of snow and rain showers. Highs in the upper 30s.

So there you have it…we’ll see if this hold by Tuesday.

The NWS has such great Weather Story graphics. It makes my job of telling you what to expect for the outdoors so much easier. To start with, the Halloween forecast. If you are trick or treating on Friday evening, the weather will be great. Winds won’t be too bad with the temperatures in the 40s at the time when most kids will be out. The front that passes through on Friday will be a dry one, so it shouldn’t be damp for the kids to be out.

Saturday, high pressure settles into the region and keeps the region dry. Temperatures will be right around 50 for the highs of the day. So a pleasant fall day is expected.

Sunday, the forecast is for a chance (and it is a low one as of this post) of rain. Now, when I downloaded the preliminary graphics from this morning, I was surprised by the current forecast for Sunday. If Sunday morning the map looks like this graphic, then it will probably remain dry, for most of the day, then as the warm front moves into the region, there will be a chance for rain in the evening. So if the HPC graphics are right for Sunday morning that’s what I’ll say. Dry during the day, chance of rain on Sunday night. Temperatures look right with lower to mid 50s. Although, with the high pulling warmer air from the south, it looks like it could get warmer than this. So there is a shot at getting into the upper 50s to around 60 for Sunday.

The 8-14 day outlook has above normal temperatures and above normal precipitation. That doesn’t make much sense to me this time of year. If we get into a wet pattern, then the temperatures tend to be below normal, unless it can stay a bit warmer overnight. I suppose that is possible, but I find it unlikely. So hunting is up in the air as far as how nice the weather will be. I can say this, there won’t be any snow for tracking at this point. Maybe later.

So the recap for the weekend is Dry through Sunday afternoon. Temperatures for Halloween are in the 40s. Highs on Saturday will be around 50. Highs on Sunday will be in the 50s.

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Well, if this holds, then the cold front on Friday will be a non-factor as far as weather. However, once through, high pressure will make for a mainly sunny weekend. High temperatures will be in the 40s for Saturday and back into the lower 50s on Sunday.

We did receive snow the last 36 hours, but it will be gone for the weekend. We need to get colder for the snow to stick. Otherwise, a dry weekend is expected.

This is the map for Saturday morning. It is showing what is expected to happen on Saturday. In this case, an area of low pressure will move into northern Michigan. This is a slow moving system. It moves into Michigan on Friday and stays through the weekend and into Tuesday. With the low over us, we will have temperatures in the 40s with rain all weekend. So for most outdoor activity, things will be damp and chilly.

With no sunshine, the color tour won’t be as nice, but if you say my picture (posted on the left) on my Twitter feed yesterday, you saw that many of the trees have lost a good portion of their leaves. So I say we are definitely past peak in the Gaylord-Vanderbilt-Boyne Falls region. This will be the last mention of the color tour for the season. I leave you with the satellite shot from 22 Oct around noon if you are looking to see what the surrounding areas look like.

Now for the big news…If you like the four letter s word, then you will be happy to know that it is in the forecast for Monday and Tuesday. However, if you are thinking about getting your snow mobiles out, think again. The first snow of the year hardly ever accumulates enough to stay, and this is no exception. However, if it is starting to get cold enough to snow, then the more permanent stuff won’t be far behind, can it?

Looking at the 8-14 day outlook, we are in normal temperatures and precipitation for the 31 Oct.-2 Nov. weekend. This means that high temperatures around the 50 degree mark, and normal low temperatures around freezing. So we will see how this will turn out, but with the snow in the early part of the week, it may mean that we will be on the cold side of things in the coming weeks. We will see.

So the recap…rain showers through the weekend and temperatures in the 40s.

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It looks like a slow moving storm system will move into the western Great Lakes and this will bring rain showers to northern Michigan. The chance for rain looks like it will be in the forecast through Monday.

High temperatures for the weekend look like they will be in the 50s for Saturday and the 40s for Sunday.

The normal high temperatures for this weekend are in the lower 50s.

From Blog for 17-19 Oct. 2008

Here is a look from Saturday of the color in eastern upper Michigan and northern lower Michigan. There are a lot of clouds out, but in some of the areas where there aren’t, especially in upper Michigan, you can definitely see the oranges. Click on the picture to see the full hi-res image from NASA/NOAA.

I’m not sure that I would agree that we are in high color around NW and NC lower Michigan, that the Foliage Network has posted as of Wednesday, but I won’t argue the point. It is hard to find a green leaf out there and as stated in a previous post, the wind has begun to pull down the leaves as well.

From 17-19 October 2008

Looking at the forecast, Friday night through Sunday noon, high pressure is in control of the forecast region. Sunday afternoon, a strong cold front will move in and bring the chance for showers. So Saturday, will be great to get out as the cloud cover will be low, so enjoy the sunshine. It will be chilly though. The high temperature is expected to be in the lower to mid 50s. Sunday, the temperatures will be a bit warmer, around 60, but if it rains, will probably end up chilly. The NWS Gaylord Weather Story graphic tells the tale.

From 17-19 October 2008

So get outside for some fun again, but bring a jacket. With near normal temperatures, it will feel a lot colder than it has in the past.

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http://ping.fm/p/SK3sM – We are at Peak or in my estimation just past the peak. A wind storm blew down a bunch of leaves as well on Tuesday and temperatures are a lot chillier with a high in Gaylord around 50.

Just looked at the preliminary graphics from HPC, the folks that provide guidance to the NWS offices for their 7 day forecasts. This looks like a great fall weekend. High pressure will be in control on Friday and Saturday, and a front probably won’t come through northern Michigan until Sunday night. Which is hopeful for the color tour.

The Foliage Network has new report coming out tomorrow (Wed 15 Oct), I’m willing to bet we are in Peak color today, this weekend may be the last time for peak color.

Bow hunting is going well from what I hear and see. I have seen deer in the early morning here in Boyne Falls while walking the dog several days in a row. The weather should continue to be great for that this weekend as well.

Fall camping and backpacking will be great, especially with the color tour.

I think that the NWS Gaylord weather story says it all. It will be warm and sunny for the weekend, which means — It will be a great weekend to get outside! The colors are coming along as well. If you saw my Twitter post with the link to the picture the trees in the background are coming along well with color. The Foliage network can show you how much. Just from my commute, I think we will be in Peak color by next week and maybe just past peak next weekend. Although, I have to admit, that I am new at guessing peak color.

Here is a look from satellite today (Oct. 9) of the UP, and of the west LP and the east LP (they are big pictures so scroll around). You can see some orange, especially west of Gaylord in the western LP image.

I do know that there is so much dry air out there that we may have a fire danger for the weekend. That remains to be seen. However, there are a lot of dead grasses out and about and any leaves that have fallen will dry quickly in this weather, so be on guard for the fire danger. So if you hike or backpack or camp, it will be great just watch the fires, and of course the color tour will be great.
So for the details….Friday, Sunny. Highs in the upper 60s. Saturday and Sunday, Sunny, Highs in the mid to upper 70s. Great weather!

I was asked by a duck hunter when the snow would fly so that the ducks would come out of the UP. I’m not familiar with the migratory patterns, but the snow based on the current trends are showing no snow for a few weeks yet. I’m thinking early November at the earliest. The 8-14 day outlook is showing normal temperatures (H:56 , L:36 ) and normal precipitation(normal: o.05″ per day).

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