Northern Michigan Recreation Weather

I’ll start with the holiday, and work the forecast into the weekend. So, this will be a longer post. I have Friday through the weekend off so I’ll try and provide updates this weekend. The holidays and work schedule are more hectic this year…phew!

First, the advisory for northwest lower Michigan:

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THISAFTERNOON.[That's today Wednesday 31 Dec - ed.]

PERIODS OF HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TOIMPACT THE REGION THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN INTENSITYAND COVERAGE THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS RANGING FROM1 TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW SHOWERSWILL OCCASIONALLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO A HALF MILE OR LESS.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MEANS THATVISIBILITIES WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO A COMBINATION OF FALLING ANDBLOWING SNOW. USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING...ESPECIALLY IN OPENAREAS.

Looking at the radar, this will be going on for a while today, but the forecast discussion for the evening is for less snow or no snow overnight. So for travel tonight most places north of M-55 will be good, and those that start out with a little snow this evening should see it come to an end.

New Year’s day and Friday look like a new Alberta clipperish system comes in, although it follows the US/Canadian border for a while so not a true clipper. Anyway, the snow will start during the afternoon tomorrow and last into Friday as Lake effect snow continues after the low goes by.

Saturday, High pressure works into the Great Lakes and the snow should stop. I think this will be a great day for cross country skiing with little wind and maybe some sunshine. Downhill will continue to be great, with more powder on the slopes and they are making more snow overnight at the resorts.

Sunday looks like the next storm will move into the region. This storm if the extended models are right will come out of the central Plains/Rockies. if the track remains, then there will be snow and perhaps a lot of it. If you are end the winter break, then keep an eye on this storm for your travel plans. If you live down state, they will get it first so leaving a day ahead may be called for. I’ll try and keep you updated on this through the weekend.

Don’t know if I will be able to get to a post or a podcast tonight. Maybe on Christmas day. We are celebrating Christmas tonight with our kids and with other family tomorrow. Definitely on Friday. If you need a forecast, Please remember to choose one of the NWS sites to the right, or for Road Conditions, the Michigan State Police link.

Christmas is coming and if the forecast is right, then the roads will be messy Sunday and Monday.

So the skinny is that as many are driving north this Friday to kick off Christmas break, you will be driving into the last bits of the storm. Here’s the winter storm warning out of NWS Gaylord:

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EST FRIDAY.

SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT AND BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES FRIDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION…GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL BRING HEAVIER LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL TO AREAS NEAR LAKE HURON AS WELL AS PRODUCE BLOWING SNOW AND FURTHER REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE REGION. BY FRIDAY EVENING…SNOW ACCUMULATIONS RANGING FROM 5 TO 9 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WARNED AREA…WITH THE GREATEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING ROUGHLY EAST OF A LINE FROM ALPENA TO HOUGHTON LAKE.

So be careful on the way up. Actually, Saturday will be a good day to travel. I just hope that you aren’t planning on going back on Sunday. Because here is what will greet you: That’s right a second storm for the weekend. But wait there is more! A third storm, which may not be as heavy will be here for Christmas Eve. So the Christmas break is guaranteed to be white and snowy. I’ll try and update over the weekend and the rest of the week with blog posts as we move through the Holiday season.

Just a clerical thing, I want to apologize for the lack of posts this week as my work schedule has been interfering with my blogging.

Also, check out this link to a NWS Gaylord page that has a host of links to information that might be helpful for your snow playing.

Okay now for the forecast…

High pressure will invade the western Great Lakes and give another cold shot that starts us out for Saturday so that the day will be below freezing most of the day. The problem is the backside of the high has a lot of warm air associated with it.
This is where we begin the warm up on Saturday. Note the isobars (lines of constant pressure) that surround the High on the east coast, they are coming out of the Gulf of Mexico. So warm moist air come up the Mississippi Valley and into the Great Lakes. this will warm our temperatures overnight so that we will end up in the upper 30s and maybe even the lower 40s on Sunday.
Of course with a deepening area of low pressure to the west and a warm front nearby, there will be either a mix of precipitation or all rain. The start of the day could have freezing rain. Roads in the morning could be slick. By the afternoon, the temperatures will be warmer so plain rain will be the norm and the ice on the roads should be gone.

So the ride home, if you live downstate will be pretty good. With the snow pack over most of northern lower Michigan in the double digits, we will probably lose some depth, but for most sports it will be a blessing in disguise as the rain will help to solidify the snow pack and get a more solid base.

On the bright side, once the system goes through a cold bubble of high pressure will sit over the Western Great Lakes. This will at least in the beginning, provide more lake effect snow and in the end bring cool temperatures to stabilize the snow pack.

On the 8-14 day outlook for the following weekend and the beginning of Christmas break as well as Christmas day, it is looking good with below normal temperatures in the Great Lakes and northern Michigan. It also looks like we will get above normal precipitation. So I’m going to go out on a limb and say that we will have a white Christmas (of course, statistically, the ods are in my favor).

So to recap, Saturday is the last “wintry day” then Sunday is messy with the rain. The rest of the week looks good to rebuild some of the snow depth over a better base.

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As the preview said yesterday, there is a lot of snow expected starting now (Wednesday night) and will continue into the weekend. The snow will start off with lake effect into Thursday night, then a new system sets up for more snow over the weekend.

Friday looks to have snow from more lake effect, but ahead of the next system and not behind as usual. This is a southwest flow snow. These events sometimes can be quite large if they can set up for days.

On Saturday, with the low moving over the region, more snow. This could be big as well, if the storm takes the right track.

Sunday, with the storm to the east, the flow over the region will be from the north to northwest. This again looks to set up more lake effect snow.

What does this mean? lots of snow for the northern lower and eastern upper Michigan. The drawback? If we get a lot of snow, then the roads will be a mess, especially with the cut backs in snow removal for by the road commissions.

Temperatures all three days will be no higher than the upper 20s, with most of the days in the lower 20s. So for the ski resorts, more snow making to go along with the natural snow. If you looked at the snow depths one of the previous posts, there should be more than enough snow for snowmobiling, and cross country skiing.

As alluded to earlier, the road conditions could be difficult if you are traveling. Check the road condition link to the right.

Looking further into the next weekend, the snow looks good. The 8-14 day outlook looks well below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation. So we aren’t losing the snow anytime soon.

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After all of the snow that we had over the last weekend, it looks like there is a chance for some more later in the week. This bodes well for the snowmobilers and skiers. Not to mention the low temperatures at night have allowed the ski resorts to make snow.

As of now there is a winter storm watch for northwest lower Michigan and a lake effect snow watch for Chippewa county for Wednesday night through Thursday. Then the lake effect will affect both areas from Thursday into Sunday.
So more snow for the winter sports enthusiasts. Looking at the previous post, with the snow depths I imagine that the snow machines will make their debut in force as this will be the first weekend that they are allowed on the trails. The only caution would be that there is still a lot of “soft” snow around. This means that some machines could get stuck, but the clubs seem ready to groom the trails. The links to the right should give you the trail conditions.

If this comes about, then one other thing to remember. With lake effect snow bands, the visibility can drop of to almost nothing with little warning. This makes traveling US-131 from Cadillac to Petoskey somewhat hazardous at time. I-75 can also receive snow band problems. So be careful traveling north on Friday afternoon.

Quite a weekend weatherwise. We got some good snow in most of northern lower Michigan and in upper Michigan as well. The best snow looks to have been in northwest lower Michigan as a snow band set up in western Chippewa and Mackinac counties and then into Leelanau and Grand Traverse counties. The graphic is of the current snow depths. So snowmobiling will be pretty good as the snow base is up quite a bit.

Here is a link to the story.