Northern Michigan Recreation Weather

The NWS office in Gaylord switched to the summer mode with the change over of the Recreation Forecast. Here is the one from this afternoon.

RECREATIONAL FORECAST FOR MACKINAC ISLAND AND VICINITY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
510 PM EDT THU APR 8 2010

.TONIGHT...
TIME (EDT)      6 PM      9 PM      MIDNGT    3 AM
TEMP (F)........35        32        33        33
CHC OF PCPN (%).80        30        30        30
WEATHER TYPE....SNOW      SNSHWR    SNSHWR    SNSHWR
SKY (%).........100       100       100       90
WIND (MPH)......N 11G30   N 14G30   NW 14G30  NW 14G30
WAVES (FT)......2         3         4         4

WATER TEMP (F)..M         M         M         M

.FRIDAY...
TIME (EDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
TEMP (F)........32        34        39        41
CHC OF PCPN (%).30        10        10        10
WEATHER TYPE....SNSHWR    SNSHWR    SNSHWR    NONE
SKY (%).........90        80        80        70
WIND (MPH)......NW 13G30  NW 12G25  NW 13G30  NW 14G30
WAVES (FT)......3         3         3         3

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
TIME (EDT)      6 PM      9 PM      MIDNGT    3 AM
TEMP (F)........40        36        33        31
CHC OF PCPN (%).10        10        10        10
WEATHER TYPE....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
SKY (%).........70        40        40        40
WIND (MPH)......NW 13G30  NW 11G25  W 9G20    W 8G20
WAVES (FT)......3         3         3         2
$$

The Rec forecast in the winter is more snow oriented, obviously. This one is centered on the land and water areas around Mackinac Island, Mackinaw City, and St. Ignace, since we tend to have a lot of tourist traffic around this area. One of my plans is to try and put this in the blog more often. There are some other things that they have, that I am considering putting into the blog as well, and short podcasts.

We got dumped on yesterday and last night. This graphic from the NWS Gaylord office is great. In fact, they have a whole page dedicated to winter weather with not only what happened, but what they expect at this link.

So what did happen? Lake effect and lots of it. Looking at the map, you notice that a lot of the snow distributed from west to east. That is because the winds were mainly from west to east in the lowest 5000 feet of the atmosphere. So the winds at the northern end of Lake Michigan, have about 100 miles to cross of warm water(this includes Green Bay and Little Traverse Bay). This as the energy and moisture needed for lake effect snow.  And as you can see in the last 24 hours, up to a foot fell from Petoskey and Charlevoix to Indian River.

If you have been following the Facebook Fan page for this site or the Twitter feed, you can see the Local storm reports put out by the NWS Gaylord office as they receive them as well as other alerts.

So how much is on the ground? Looks like the typical area of Northwest Lower Michigan has from 10 to 18 inches of snow. The base of this snow is a little wetter from the storm that came through Wednesday, so a decent base is in place. So for the snowmobilers, There’s plenty of places to go. For downhill skiers, the ski resorts have been making snow after the first lake effect event last weekend when things got cold enough and they have been going non-stop since. I live across from Boyne Mountain and I know this from the past week. Cross-country skiers will be quite happy with the powder out there as well. Not much I have to say about that.

Looking at the radar from around Friday Noon, we continue our west wind snow bands. So if you are coming up be careful along US-131 and portions of I-75, especially near Gaylord. Visibility will be down to almost zero at times.

Saturday, The snow machine will let up. Sunday will be a little warmer as the next system approaches, but don’t worry we won’t be losing any of this snow anytime soon.

Time for me to shovel the driveway…

Looking at the NWS Gaylord forecast for the area, it will be wet to start, a little dry on Saturday, only for showers to start Saturday night and then mix with snow which will go into Sunday. For those who want to snowmobile, keep the sleds in the garage for a bit longer. If you were hoping for tracking snow during bow season, well, probably not that as well. I will say that the colors are coming along well and if you look at the Foliage Network’s link The upper peninsula is in high color and Northern Lower Michigan is in moderate color. It looks like the color will be near peak during the weekend and maybe in the early next week. So get out there and tour around the area. I’d show you what it looks like from space, but it has been too cloudy for the satellite passes.

Friday

The first cold front is through the area and the rain should be ending. Temperatures will be in the lower 50s. So for hunting, while the rain will end, it will be damp out, but at least you shouldn’t be getting rain falling on you. Since we are in the fall, we probably won’t see any sunshine or clearing until late overnight or early on Saturday morning.

Saturday

With the morning weather map showing high pressure over the region we will keep things dry for the day, although the cold front that is approaching will probably get rain into portions of Eastern Upper Michigan. High temperatures will again be mainly in the lower 50s. It’s at night when the cold front is through that the rain will be in most of area and then overnight would expect that there will be snow mixed in with the rain. Which leads us into…

Sunday

If this map is right, then we get into lake effect showers, and since the temperatures will be chilly to start, then snow will mix in with the rain in the morning. It does look like, as we get into the mid 40s that any snow we do have, will change back to all rain.

Outlook for 16-18 October 2009

The Outlook is for below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation, so our cool, wet weather is expected through the following week at least as the CPC thinks. I’m beginning to think that as well. Not great for cleaning up the leaves that begin falling after the peak this week.

Rain is coming for the weekend, in fact by the time most of you read this (or hear the podcast), it will be raining over Northern Michigan. I cropped the Weather story graphic that the NWS in Gaylord issued Thursday afternoon. The graphic show that there will be rain for the Friday through Sunday. A wet start to the Deer Bow Hunting Season.

As far as the foliage is concerned, the trees continue to gain color, and it’s looking pretty decent so far. This storm system isn’t expected to have outrageous winds, so most of the leaves should be safe.  Just to see how the color is coming, check out the Foliage Network for the latest report and this satellite shot.  Here’s a clip centered on Gaylord. You can see if you look closely that there is a bit of an orange or red color to some of the green now.

Now to the details of the forecast.

An area of low pressure moves towards the Great Lakes. By Friday afternoon, the warm front is in the region, spreading rain to areas north of M-55. This is expected throughout the day. With the rain and the clouds, High temperatures are expected to be in the mid to upper 50s. Winds shouldn’t be bad as the lines around the low aren’t nearly as packed around it as they were with the last storm, that we had Monday. Not being a hunter, I’m not sure if it matters much, but it looks pretty damp out. So if you can stay dry, it won’t be bad.

By Saturday, the rain will continue although it may be more showery and drizzly than anything else. The low, over the area, is a dying storm, which means that it is loosing the ability to produce a lot of rain. Most of the best rain will be concentrated around the outside of the low, which is outside of Michigan for Saturday. High temperatures will be a little cooler, in the lower to mid 50s.

Sunday, the Low will move out of the area. It still has some ability to make rain so there is a chance of showers, but it is dying. If it is cold enough there may be some lake effect rain showers, however, the clouds will be a given.  High temperatures will rebound a bit, but we will be solidly in the 50s.

Looking at the 8-14 day outlook of the CPC, we are expected to remain in the below normal temperature category, and below normal precipitation. So not a lot of rain but it will remain cool. We are definitely in Fall.

I looked at the forecast and now it looks better than it did yesterday. While today is a little chillier than expected, and there is still a chance for rain showers on Saturday. However, now Sunday is looking drier with high temperatures in the lower 70s. The NWS Gaylord has all of the details and a mighty fine graphic. I’m going up to Indian River soon to be outdoors so have fun this weekend!!

<–If you click on this it will take you to the Foliage Network site, and I want to add that you can really notice the color change in the last week near the Gaylord area. One of the visible satellite images (watch out it’s a large image) of the Great Lakes shows a little bit of color as well.

Now the weather for the weekend. Overall, it looks ok. Not great, but ok. We’ll get to the details shortly, but the overall idea is that a slow moving weather system in the Great Plains will move toward the Great Lakes, first bringing clouds, then rain.

High pressure will be over the region for the afternoon on Friday. The sun will be out most of the time, but the clouds will slowly increase over the day. The forecast from the NWS Gaylord site shows that the chance of rain will creep into the region overnight. High temperatures will range through the 60s, although, I wouldn’t be surprised that some areas would get to around 70.

Saturday, the high retreats and a weak low moves closer to the region. It looks like there is a low chance of rain for the day as the storm system weakens and falls apart. High temperatures will be warmer as winds blow warmer air from the south. High temperatures will range from around 70 and into the lower 70s.

Sunday, a strong low pressure system that is expected to come out of Canada will bring rain to the region. A warm front will sweep through early, then the cold front. The cold front looks fairly strong, so the high temperatures looks to be limited to the upper 50s.

The basic idea, then is that Friday and Saturday will be dry to slightly damp, and then Sunday damp and cool.

The outlook for the following weekend is currently for above normal temperatures and above normal precipitation. However, yesterday it was above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation.  So beware! the outlook will change for next weekend. Next weekend is the start of bow season, So I’ll keep an eye on this. I’ll try to put some extra previews up this week.

For the last weekend before fall starts, this will be a great weekend to get outdoors. The color is beginning to show, at least west of Gaylord, where the orange and reds are beginning to show.  I’ll try to get some pictures to share over the weekend.

While the clouds will start on Friday, but by the afternoon the sun will be out and the temperatures will be climb into the mid to upper 60s.  Saturday and Sunday, temperatures will climb into the lower 70s. So no real change since the week.

The outlook for next weekend is below normal temperatures and near normal precipitation.  Normal high temperatures are in the lower to mid 60s, so we are definitely getting into the fall.

I thought that I would be able to get to this last night…blah. Oh well, the forecast is for more high pressure to keep northern Michigan sunny to partly cloudy with high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s. In fact things look pretty dry out through the next week. The trees are beginning to turn now, with more of the maples beginning to change.  So get out and enjoy the outdoors!!

Because of the late forecast, I won’t be able to record a podcast this week.

There is a saying among meteorologists, “Big bubble, no trouble.” The bubble is a bubble of high pressure, and if you are under it, then the weather is usually great for being outdoors. I put the map for Sunday morning up so that you can see that high is in control. This weekend will be mostly sunny through Monday, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s. So it will be a great weekend to be outside for the last weekend of the summer.

Outlook for the weekend of 11-13 September 2009

As I have been looking at the HPC graphics each day, they keep backing off when the chance of rain will move in. Yesterday, it was next Wednesday night. Today, it is next Thursday night. So, I’m having a hard time believing that we will have above normal precipitation and around normal temperatures. It seems like if we keep backing off the precipitation that the weekend will be half way decent. So it will be one to watch after the first week of school.

Most of my work is done. The NWS in Gaylord has put together a great graphic for me to work with. As I said in the preview on Wednesday, this was a weekend of being chilly and damp. It looks like the computer guidance that the NWS uses has caught up to reality, as is now calling for around 60 for highs on Saturday and Sunday.  So let’s look at the details…

Friday afternoon

Low pressure moves out of northwest Canada and moves into the western Great Lakes.  The jet stream buckles and allows the low to park itself over the area. The result? cool, rainy weather. It looks like that the day will start dry, and then the rain will move into the region for the afternoon. This will allow us to warm up a bit, before cooling back down. The high temperatures are expected to be in the mid 60s, maybe the upper 60s if we are lucky. Being outside will be okay to start, but then damp and chilly.

Saturday

Saturday we will wake up with drizzle and rain showers, especially in northwest lower Michigan. With the cold air pooled over us, it will remain chilly. It won’t be a great day to be outside. One thing that people will probably notice, if they are watching the radar that day will be the bands of rain showers that will form. We will be in a lake effect rain shower pattern over eastern upper and northwest lower Michigan by the afternoon. High temperatures will range from the upper 50s to the lower 60s.

Sunday

If I had the space to post the upper level winds, you would see an area of low pressure over the region, besides the surface low that you see to the left. The forecast is again for chilly, damp weather, so being outside will be marginal at best.

I don’t often talk about marine issues, however, I know that some boaters will be looking to get out on the Great Lakes this weekend, to fish. Fishing Lake Michigan can be done in cool, rainy weather, however, expect there to be small craft advisories issued; and with the area of the low pressure, the relatively warm waters of  Whitefish Bay and northern Lakes Michigan and Huron, and cold air over the lakes, we are expecting waterspouts . In fact, NWS Gaylord has it outlined in their Hazardous Weather Outlook for Friday through Wednesday:

WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY…ON WHITEFISH BAY AND THE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE WATERS OF NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN LAKE HURON

So beware, if you are planning on doing any boating. If there are small craft advisories out for northern Lake Michigan, then there will be rip current statements out as well, not that anyone will want to swim in the Great Lakes this weekend.

Outlook for 4-7 September 2009

Labor Day weekend

The one promising part of this post is that we are looking at above normal temperatures for the Labor Day weekend. The only downside is that we are running close to the above normal precipitation area on the map, too. Most of northern lower and eastern upper Michigan will be normal for preipitation, with portions of northwest lower above normal.  So we could get a bit of a warm up for the last big summer bash of the year. Normal high temperatures are running from the upper 60s at the Soo to the mid 70s near Traverse City. Gaylord and Alpena have normal highs in the lower 70s.

The Recap

We are expecting chilly, damp conditions this weekend, but Labor Day weekend is hinting at somewhat better weather. Let’s hope.