Northern Michigan Recreation Weather

The start of the Christmas weekend will be a mess. The question is what kind. This is a preview, but I’ll try to be a little more specific with this. I’ll try and do a podcast tomorrow. The main thing is that the weather will cause some problems this weekend.

The first problem will be on the 24th and go into the 25th. The low will move up from the Central Plains and head to Wisconsin. The cold air that we have in place will bring us snow first and then change to rain or freezing rain.

Then as we get into the Christmas day the low continues to spin in Wisconsin.  The one thing we have going for us is that the cold air wraps around and the rain will change back to snow for Christmas day and the rest of the weekend. Sunday could be a problem with lake effect snow as many could be traveling home. However, don’t worry we will have a white Christmas and there will be snow for the snow mobiling. Thursday and Friday will be a bit messy, but a good solid base will form and then more snow on top.

The snow from last week’s storm has been compacting which will allow the base to be setup well.

Thanksgiving day will be rainy as the low moves over us. Overnight, the rain changes to snow. The snow will continue  off and on during Friday as the low moves out a bit. Tracking snow? maybe for Friday, but not Saturday, with the sunny sky. Sunday, this looks like a mix of rain and snow. The temperatures will be at or below 40 degrees.

There is a saying among meteorologists, “Big bubble, no trouble.” The bubble is a bubble of high pressure, and if you are under it, then the weather is usually great for being outdoors. I put the map for Sunday morning up so that you can see that high is in control. This weekend will be mostly sunny through Monday, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s. So it will be a great weekend to be outside for the last weekend of the summer.

Outlook for the weekend of 11-13 September 2009

As I have been looking at the HPC graphics each day, they keep backing off when the chance of rain will move in. Yesterday, it was next Wednesday night. Today, it is next Thursday night. So, I’m having a hard time believing that we will have above normal precipitation and around normal temperatures. It seems like if we keep backing off the precipitation that the weekend will be half way decent. So it will be one to watch after the first week of school.

This is going to be a get out and enjoy the outdoors for the last holiday weekend of the “summer.” Temperatures for the weekend will be in the mid  70s with no rain and mostly sunny skies. There is one day that there may be something and that is around Sunday. The cold front approaches eastern upper Michigan and could touch off some showers, but it is looking very dry through the period. So for the Labor day weekend, it will be great to get outdoors.

The outlook for the following weekend looks almost as nice. Above normal temperatures, but above normal precipitation.

Most of my work is done. The NWS in Gaylord has put together a great graphic for me to work with. As I said in the preview on Wednesday, this was a weekend of being chilly and damp. It looks like the computer guidance that the NWS uses has caught up to reality, as is now calling for around 60 for highs on Saturday and Sunday.  So let’s look at the details…

Friday afternoon

Low pressure moves out of northwest Canada and moves into the western Great Lakes.  The jet stream buckles and allows the low to park itself over the area. The result? cool, rainy weather. It looks like that the day will start dry, and then the rain will move into the region for the afternoon. This will allow us to warm up a bit, before cooling back down. The high temperatures are expected to be in the mid 60s, maybe the upper 60s if we are lucky. Being outside will be okay to start, but then damp and chilly.

Saturday

Saturday we will wake up with drizzle and rain showers, especially in northwest lower Michigan. With the cold air pooled over us, it will remain chilly. It won’t be a great day to be outside. One thing that people will probably notice, if they are watching the radar that day will be the bands of rain showers that will form. We will be in a lake effect rain shower pattern over eastern upper and northwest lower Michigan by the afternoon. High temperatures will range from the upper 50s to the lower 60s.

Sunday

If I had the space to post the upper level winds, you would see an area of low pressure over the region, besides the surface low that you see to the left. The forecast is again for chilly, damp weather, so being outside will be marginal at best.

I don’t often talk about marine issues, however, I know that some boaters will be looking to get out on the Great Lakes this weekend, to fish. Fishing Lake Michigan can be done in cool, rainy weather, however, expect there to be small craft advisories issued; and with the area of the low pressure, the relatively warm waters of  Whitefish Bay and northern Lakes Michigan and Huron, and cold air over the lakes, we are expecting waterspouts . In fact, NWS Gaylord has it outlined in their Hazardous Weather Outlook for Friday through Wednesday:

WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY…ON WHITEFISH BAY AND THE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE WATERS OF NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN LAKE HURON

So beware, if you are planning on doing any boating. If there are small craft advisories out for northern Lake Michigan, then there will be rip current statements out as well, not that anyone will want to swim in the Great Lakes this weekend.

Outlook for 4-7 September 2009

Labor Day weekend

The one promising part of this post is that we are looking at above normal temperatures for the Labor Day weekend. The only downside is that we are running close to the above normal precipitation area on the map, too. Most of northern lower and eastern upper Michigan will be normal for preipitation, with portions of northwest lower above normal.  So we could get a bit of a warm up for the last big summer bash of the year. Normal high temperatures are running from the upper 60s at the Soo to the mid 70s near Traverse City. Gaylord and Alpena have normal highs in the lower 70s.

The Recap

We are expecting chilly, damp conditions this weekend, but Labor Day weekend is hinting at somewhat better weather. Let’s hope.

Had to add this now that the rainy damp weather is out of here:

NWS Gaylord, Mi Weather Story

My only criticism is that it look a little busy, but lots of good information for the Holiday weekend!

For those of you looking to have nice sunny weather for the 4th, you are in luck! The forecast is looking great and it looks like it will stay that way. If you are looking for 80s, well then not so much luck there. Here are the details…

Friday looks to be a dry mainly sunny day, with a front moving through at night. The front must be dry because the NWS in Gaylord is keeping the forecast dry for the night.  Seems reasonable as the upper level system is well to the east and north. What this leaves us on Saturday is high pressure building into the region

Saturday morning weather map

and some cooler weather than the day before.  Friday looks like 68 to 75 degrees from the Soo to Houghton Lake, while Saturday is mid 60s to lower 70s.

If you are wondering about fireworks over the weekend, weather-wise it should be pretty good on all the evenings. The only caveat is the Friday evening fireworks that some towns are having. If the clouds are low enough when the front goes through, then that could cause problems, but if the forecast is dry then the cloud bases should be high enough to allow the fireworks to go off. If you wonder where and when the fireworks will go off check out Michiganfireworks.com or follow them on twitter.

For Sunday, the weather should rebound to the warmer side with the weather again sunny!

Sunday Morning weather map

High pressure stays in the region and the temperatures heat up a bit into the lower to mid 70s.  Not sure why there is a chance of showers overnight Sunday, but Monday is sunny again. Temperatures for the first part of the week will be in the lower to mid 70s and it will continue to be sunny through Wednesday. So if you are staying into the early part of next week it is looking pretty good so far.

Looking at the following weekend, The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) shows us in normal Temperatures and Precipitation in the 8-14 day outlook. The map shows us caught between above normal and below normal areas. This usually means that the jet stream will be over us. The problem is that with all of the little wiggles in the jet stream that we could be above or below normal easily. However, for now it looks like we would be ranging from the mid 70s near the Soo to the lower 80s near Traverse City and Houghton Lake.

Well, hang on to your forecasts folks, as always with Michigan weather, we are going to have some change ups in the forecast.

Looking at 3 to 5 days out on the HPC forecasts, the main low is to our east and it looks like high pressure builds back into the western Great Lakes and into northern Michigan.  This will bring us to sunny to partly cloudy conditions on Friday and Saturday. The forecast from the previous preview was for showers on Saturday, but now they have moved to Sunday. It looks like low pressure in the upper atmosphere will move back into the Great Lakes on Sunday bringing the chance of showers. Temperatures are a little more unsettled as the high on Friday will be in the lower to mid 70s, with Saturday and Sunday in the mid to upper 60s (It’s too bad HPC doesn’t put their maps on a RSS feed or permalink them. My links to the graphics will probably change Wednesday morning as you read my preview.).

I’m not sure if I believe that or not, yet. I’m hoping the idea will be more clear tomorrow night when I record the podcast. I will try to update the blog over the next few days regardless so that you have the most up-to-date outlook. Also remember to check the NWS office nearest you, and in northern michigan that would be the Gaylord office.

As for the podcast, I’m looking forward to doing it again. It’s been almost 3 months since I had my surgery and had to take a hiatus.

I try not to get to far ahead in the forecast. I usually wait until Tuesday for my previews, but since some are getting the jump on the weekend. I thought I would try to get some posts out ahead. After looking at the maps, I’m hopefully optimistic for a decent forecast. Looking at HPC’s 7 day forecast maps for the sfc and at about 15,000 feet, the middle of the week (1 July) looks wet and dreary. However, as we get to the end of the week, the upper level low moves out (this is what causes the dreary midweek weather) and we get into “Northwest Flow.” This means we will warm a bit and get scattered precipitation. At this point Friday and Sunday look great with temperatures in the 70s and Sunny to Partly cloudy skies. Saturday is the iffy one, but at this point it is hard to tell the timing of the showers and thunderstorms. The High on Independence day is expected to be near 80 around the region.

The 4th of July is a week away. I’ll definitely get an update to the preview out and a podcast on Wednesday(!).  It’s great to be back in the saddle.

Just a quick apology for no forecast last week. I got preoccupied with the hospital at the end of last week. Now that that’s done with, on with the forecast!

The forecast itself is great for being outdoors. High pressure, sunshine, and seasonable temperatures, notice I didn’t say warm temperatures. First, warm is in the eye of the beholder, and second, the temperatures will be at or slightly below normal. The normal high for Gaylord is 51F. So lower 50s a little south of that and upper 40s near the Soo.

Weather story from 4/9/09

The weather service has it right with the headline, “Easter Weekend Shaping up Dry and Cool.”

So early season camping at campgrounds should be great, as well as fishing, hiking, and road biking. The one caveat to throw out there, is that there is still a little snow in the woods. So backcountry camping may be a little messy, unless you plan well. Several friends talked about fishing this weekend. The streams up north are free of ice, with only the lakes a little slow to open up. Lakes Michigan and Huron are opening up pretty well. I’m not sure of the Straits, and Little Traverse Bay is open to Harbor Springs, but not near Petoskey. I didn’t get down by Bay Harbor to see how far the opening is, but it looks open on the satellite image. That same satellite image shows that Grand Traverse Bay and Thunder Bay are open. It will be a bit cool out there, but if you are fishing, as I understand from some sources, you’ll love it this weekend.

So for the details  of the forecast:

Good Friday…Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs ranging from around 40 at the Soo to mid40s near Houghton Lake.
Friday Night…Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 20s.
Saturday…Mostly sunny. Highs ranging from around 40 at the Soo to mid40s near Houghton Lake.
Saturday Night…Mostly clear. Lows around 20 give or take a few degrees.
Easter Sunday…Mostly sunny. Highs ranging from the mid40s at the Soo to the lower 50s near Houghton Lake and Traverse City.

One thing to remember with temperatures, it stays cooler at the lake shores of the Great Lakes because the water temperatures are in the 30s. If you are planning to be near the lakes, it will be chilly.

If you are in the woods this weekend, and there is no snow where you are, beware of lighting fires. There is a lot of dry dead grass and deadfall from the winter out there. My guess is that relative humidity on Saturday, and especially on Sunday will be near 25% in the State and National forest lands. So if you start something it could get out of hand quickly if you are not careful. Winds won’t be strong this weekend, so just be careful.

Looking a little further ahead, the 8-14 day outlook shows that we are on the border of normal to above normal temperatures and normal to below normal precipitation.  So we could have a couple of really nice outdoor weekends coming up.