Northern Michigan Recreation Weather

I try not to get to far ahead in the forecast. I usually wait until Tuesday for my previews, but since some are getting the jump on the weekend. I thought I would try to get some posts out ahead. After looking at the maps, I’m hopefully optimistic for a decent forecast. Looking at HPC’s 7 day forecast maps for the sfc and at about 15,000 feet, the middle of the week (1 July) looks wet and dreary. However, as we get to the end of the week, the upper level low moves out (this is what causes the dreary midweek weather) and we get into “Northwest Flow.” This means we will warm a bit and get scattered precipitation. At this point Friday and Sunday look great with temperatures in the 70s and Sunny to Partly cloudy skies. Saturday is the iffy one, but at this point it is hard to tell the timing of the showers and thunderstorms. The High on Independence day is expected to be near 80 around the region.

The 4th of July is a week away. I’ll definitely get an update to the preview out and a podcast on Wednesday(!).  It’s great to be back in the saddle.

Main thing that most will worry about is if we will  lose the snow. The short answer is some, but not all. Saturday will wet and warm. Not necessarily something you want with the snow if you want to get outside.  So that will be the battle for Saturday, do I play or get all wet? With high temperatures around 40, probably wet.

Sunday won’t be so bad as the rain will stop and the temperatures will be closer to freezing. From the Weather story from the NWS Gaylord, and the HPC  forecast maps seen above show the progession of the storm system as it goes through the region.  Temperatures will fall and any snow that we lose, we may gain it back.

The 8-14 day outlook looks good for snow with below normal precipitation, and below normal temperatures. So get ready for more snow.

We’ll have to see how the NWS looks at the new HPC guidance, but the new stuff this morning is looking like we will be cool and showery probably for Saturday. Not a great thing for the weekend, but not terrible.

Temperatures by HPC are done like this: They look at the computer models and determine which one is looks th best, and blend in the others as they determine might fit, or be a good compromise. Based on that, they look at the MEX numbers which are statistically derived temperatures based on one of the computer models. They then, based on the pattern that they see, the MEX numbers, and climatology; come up with the High temperatures, Low temperatures, and Probability of Precipitation (PoP).

In this case the later days in the forecast are pushed closer to climatology, since it typically is better at verifying at longer ranges. So if that makes sense, my guess is that through this week, you will see the high temperatures for this weekend dip into the 60s. Right now, the temperatures are for the lower 70s. Which doesn’t bode well for getting out on the lake to ski, or hike, unless you enjoy those temperatures.

The other thing to remember is that there is a 40% chance of rain showers. Looking at the maps of the fronts that I have for Saturday and Sunday, the pattern that is evolving is one that we in northern Michigan are dealing with today. An area of low pressure that is sitting nearby, cooling temperatures and making it rain.

See a little of the similarity? I’m keeping my fingers crossed for the temperatures to stay up, and that the rain holds off, but the current pattern isn’t very promising.

So the forecast as of today is Saturday a chance of rain showers Highs in the lower 70s. Sunday, Mostly cloudy (I think there is a chance of rain) and highs around 70.