Northern Michigan Recreation Weather

The weekend is actually looking more decent than it did on Tuesday. Temperatures will be a bit warmer Friday, but the weekend proper will be a little cooler, after a cold front goes through late on Saturday.  As one hunter told me, he would rather have cooler temperatures. Well, it won’t be as warm as last weekend when it got into the 60s. So now here are the details…

Friday

With the remnants of Hurricane Ida now moving off the Atlantic coast, this will hold the pattern up one more day. The cold front will slowly move to the east. producing higher winds and high clouds as it moves into the region. The low pressure in the southern plains will move toward Michigan so that by Friday night, rain showers will start. High temperatures will remain in the lower to mid 50s.

Saturday

With “Ida’s” remnants slowing down the progression of the storms, the low that was in the Southern Plains will be in Wisconsin. This will bring the chance of rain as the low stays to the west. The cloud cover will keep things a bit cooler. Right now, the high temperatures are expected to remain in the mid 40s to  the mid 50s. There may not be  a lot of rain with this system so temperatures could be a bit warmer. Maybe, like Friday’s highs. I also wouldn’t be surprised for the day to be dry.

Sunday

The cold front will move through the region on Saturday night. With the low already near James Bay, I would expect that there would be a really small chance in the morning, but the balance of the day will be dry. With the winds out of the northwest highs will definitely be in the mid 40s to lower 50s. As the high pressure system builds into the region the sky will probably begin to break by the afternoon.  So the hunters will like mild temperatures.

Outlook for next weekend

Currently, CPC has Above normal temperatures and precipitation. My guess is that this is probably right. So we could see a replay of this weekend for the next.

Looking at the NWS Gaylord forecast for the area, it will be wet to start, a little dry on Saturday, only for showers to start Saturday night and then mix with snow which will go into Sunday. For those who want to snowmobile, keep the sleds in the garage for a bit longer. If you were hoping for tracking snow during bow season, well, probably not that as well. I will say that the colors are coming along well and if you look at the Foliage Network’s link The upper peninsula is in high color and Northern Lower Michigan is in moderate color. It looks like the color will be near peak during the weekend and maybe in the early next week. So get out there and tour around the area. I’d show you what it looks like from space, but it has been too cloudy for the satellite passes.

Friday

The first cold front is through the area and the rain should be ending. Temperatures will be in the lower 50s. So for hunting, while the rain will end, it will be damp out, but at least you shouldn’t be getting rain falling on you. Since we are in the fall, we probably won’t see any sunshine or clearing until late overnight or early on Saturday morning.

Saturday

With the morning weather map showing high pressure over the region we will keep things dry for the day, although the cold front that is approaching will probably get rain into portions of Eastern Upper Michigan. High temperatures will again be mainly in the lower 50s. It’s at night when the cold front is through that the rain will be in most of area and then overnight would expect that there will be snow mixed in with the rain. Which leads us into…

Sunday

If this map is right, then we get into lake effect showers, and since the temperatures will be chilly to start, then snow will mix in with the rain in the morning. It does look like, as we get into the mid 40s that any snow we do have, will change back to all rain.

Outlook for 16-18 October 2009

The Outlook is for below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation, so our cool, wet weather is expected through the following week at least as the CPC thinks. I’m beginning to think that as well. Not great for cleaning up the leaves that begin falling after the peak this week.

Rain is coming for the weekend, in fact by the time most of you read this (or hear the podcast), it will be raining over Northern Michigan. I cropped the Weather story graphic that the NWS in Gaylord issued Thursday afternoon. The graphic show that there will be rain for the Friday through Sunday. A wet start to the Deer Bow Hunting Season.

As far as the foliage is concerned, the trees continue to gain color, and it’s looking pretty decent so far. This storm system isn’t expected to have outrageous winds, so most of the leaves should be safe.  Just to see how the color is coming, check out the Foliage Network for the latest report and this satellite shot.  Here’s a clip centered on Gaylord. You can see if you look closely that there is a bit of an orange or red color to some of the green now.

Now to the details of the forecast.

An area of low pressure moves towards the Great Lakes. By Friday afternoon, the warm front is in the region, spreading rain to areas north of M-55. This is expected throughout the day. With the rain and the clouds, High temperatures are expected to be in the mid to upper 50s. Winds shouldn’t be bad as the lines around the low aren’t nearly as packed around it as they were with the last storm, that we had Monday. Not being a hunter, I’m not sure if it matters much, but it looks pretty damp out. So if you can stay dry, it won’t be bad.

By Saturday, the rain will continue although it may be more showery and drizzly than anything else. The low, over the area, is a dying storm, which means that it is loosing the ability to produce a lot of rain. Most of the best rain will be concentrated around the outside of the low, which is outside of Michigan for Saturday. High temperatures will be a little cooler, in the lower to mid 50s.

Sunday, the Low will move out of the area. It still has some ability to make rain so there is a chance of showers, but it is dying. If it is cold enough there may be some lake effect rain showers, however, the clouds will be a given.  High temperatures will rebound a bit, but we will be solidly in the 50s.

Looking at the 8-14 day outlook of the CPC, we are expected to remain in the below normal temperature category, and below normal precipitation. So not a lot of rain but it will remain cool. We are definitely in Fall.

<–If you click on this it will take you to the Foliage Network site, and I want to add that you can really notice the color change in the last week near the Gaylord area. One of the visible satellite images (watch out it’s a large image) of the Great Lakes shows a little bit of color as well.

Now the weather for the weekend. Overall, it looks ok. Not great, but ok. We’ll get to the details shortly, but the overall idea is that a slow moving weather system in the Great Plains will move toward the Great Lakes, first bringing clouds, then rain.

High pressure will be over the region for the afternoon on Friday. The sun will be out most of the time, but the clouds will slowly increase over the day. The forecast from the NWS Gaylord site shows that the chance of rain will creep into the region overnight. High temperatures will range through the 60s, although, I wouldn’t be surprised that some areas would get to around 70.

Saturday, the high retreats and a weak low moves closer to the region. It looks like there is a low chance of rain for the day as the storm system weakens and falls apart. High temperatures will be warmer as winds blow warmer air from the south. High temperatures will range from around 70 and into the lower 70s.

Sunday, a strong low pressure system that is expected to come out of Canada will bring rain to the region. A warm front will sweep through early, then the cold front. The cold front looks fairly strong, so the high temperatures looks to be limited to the upper 50s.

The basic idea, then is that Friday and Saturday will be dry to slightly damp, and then Sunday damp and cool.

The outlook for the following weekend is currently for above normal temperatures and above normal precipitation. However, yesterday it was above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation.  So beware! the outlook will change for next weekend. Next weekend is the start of bow season, So I’ll keep an eye on this. I’ll try to put some extra previews up this week.

For the last weekend before fall starts, this will be a great weekend to get outdoors. The color is beginning to show, at least west of Gaylord, where the orange and reds are beginning to show.  I’ll try to get some pictures to share over the weekend.

While the clouds will start on Friday, but by the afternoon the sun will be out and the temperatures will be climb into the mid to upper 60s.  Saturday and Sunday, temperatures will climb into the lower 70s. So no real change since the week.

The outlook for next weekend is below normal temperatures and near normal precipitation.  Normal high temperatures are in the lower to mid 60s, so we are definitely getting into the fall.

There is a saying among meteorologists, “Big bubble, no trouble.” The bubble is a bubble of high pressure, and if you are under it, then the weather is usually great for being outdoors. I put the map for Sunday morning up so that you can see that high is in control. This weekend will be mostly sunny through Monday, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s. So it will be a great weekend to be outside for the last weekend of the summer.

Outlook for the weekend of 11-13 September 2009

As I have been looking at the HPC graphics each day, they keep backing off when the chance of rain will move in. Yesterday, it was next Wednesday night. Today, it is next Thursday night. So, I’m having a hard time believing that we will have above normal precipitation and around normal temperatures. It seems like if we keep backing off the precipitation that the weekend will be half way decent. So it will be one to watch after the first week of school.

This is going to be a get out and enjoy the outdoors for the last holiday weekend of the “summer.” Temperatures for the weekend will be in the mid  70s with no rain and mostly sunny skies. There is one day that there may be something and that is around Sunday. The cold front approaches eastern upper Michigan and could touch off some showers, but it is looking very dry through the period. So for the Labor day weekend, it will be great to get outdoors.

The outlook for the following weekend looks almost as nice. Above normal temperatures, but above normal precipitation.

Most of my work is done. The NWS in Gaylord has put together a great graphic for me to work with. As I said in the preview on Wednesday, this was a weekend of being chilly and damp. It looks like the computer guidance that the NWS uses has caught up to reality, as is now calling for around 60 for highs on Saturday and Sunday.  So let’s look at the details…

Friday afternoon

Low pressure moves out of northwest Canada and moves into the western Great Lakes.  The jet stream buckles and allows the low to park itself over the area. The result? cool, rainy weather. It looks like that the day will start dry, and then the rain will move into the region for the afternoon. This will allow us to warm up a bit, before cooling back down. The high temperatures are expected to be in the mid 60s, maybe the upper 60s if we are lucky. Being outside will be okay to start, but then damp and chilly.

Saturday

Saturday we will wake up with drizzle and rain showers, especially in northwest lower Michigan. With the cold air pooled over us, it will remain chilly. It won’t be a great day to be outside. One thing that people will probably notice, if they are watching the radar that day will be the bands of rain showers that will form. We will be in a lake effect rain shower pattern over eastern upper and northwest lower Michigan by the afternoon. High temperatures will range from the upper 50s to the lower 60s.

Sunday

If I had the space to post the upper level winds, you would see an area of low pressure over the region, besides the surface low that you see to the left. The forecast is again for chilly, damp weather, so being outside will be marginal at best.

I don’t often talk about marine issues, however, I know that some boaters will be looking to get out on the Great Lakes this weekend, to fish. Fishing Lake Michigan can be done in cool, rainy weather, however, expect there to be small craft advisories issued; and with the area of the low pressure, the relatively warm waters of  Whitefish Bay and northern Lakes Michigan and Huron, and cold air over the lakes, we are expecting waterspouts . In fact, NWS Gaylord has it outlined in their Hazardous Weather Outlook for Friday through Wednesday:

WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY…ON WHITEFISH BAY AND THE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE WATERS OF NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN LAKE HURON

So beware, if you are planning on doing any boating. If there are small craft advisories out for northern Lake Michigan, then there will be rip current statements out as well, not that anyone will want to swim in the Great Lakes this weekend.

Outlook for 4-7 September 2009

Labor Day weekend

The one promising part of this post is that we are looking at above normal temperatures for the Labor Day weekend. The only downside is that we are running close to the above normal precipitation area on the map, too. Most of northern lower and eastern upper Michigan will be normal for preipitation, with portions of northwest lower above normal.  So we could get a bit of a warm up for the last big summer bash of the year. Normal high temperatures are running from the upper 60s at the Soo to the mid 70s near Traverse City. Gaylord and Alpena have normal highs in the lower 70s.

The Recap

We are expecting chilly, damp conditions this weekend, but Labor Day weekend is hinting at somewhat better weather. Let’s hope.

After a couple of pretty good to great weekends, this one will be back to how most of this summer has gone. The basic idea from Tuesday of  cool, damp start to the weekend then clearing out by Sunday is still good, but it does look a bit cooler for the weekend as it has been for most of this summer. So here we go…

The NWS Gaylord graphic describes the idea for the weekend pretty well. The festivals this weekend may be affected by the weather on Friday, but Saturday and Sunday look pretty good.

Friday

The surface low moves northeast of Lake Superior with a pretty strong cold front. This will bring more showers to the region. With the low kind of hanging on expect cloudy, cool, showery weather for the afternoon and evening. This type of pattern typically cool. High temperatures are expected in the mid to upper 60s, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it is a bit cooler. The afternoon and evening just don’t look that great for the outdoors. This will last into the night, but there is a promise of clearing overnight.

Saturday

The low is gone and the high pressure is building into Michigan. The light north wind will keep things on the cool side. There will be clouds to start and possibly some showers in the morning. It looks like it will dry out by the afternoon. High temperatures will be ranging from the upper 60s to the lower 70s. So for being outdoors, it looks like it won’t be bad for the afternoon and the temperatures will be a little warmer, but probably not a swimming day. The one caveat with this forecast is hurricane Bill, which you can see on the edge of the graphic. He is big enough that he could slow down the progression of the upper level low and subsequently the front. This, in turn, could cause the rain and clouds to hold up. I’ll try to get updates out, if there is a drastic change to the forecast.

Sunday

The high works it way into the region and should give  dry, warmer day. High temperatures are expected to range through the 70s with places like Traverse City and Houghton Lake approaching 80. If it does get that warm, then water sports won’t be too bad. Of course, hiking, biking, and camping will be  pretty good. If Bill keeps moving then the high will build in and the weather will be pretty decent for Sunday.

The Outlook for 28-30 August 2009

The 8-14 day outlook looks like the jet stream is over Michigan, so we will be near normal for temperatures and below normal for precipitation. The normal high temperatures are ranging from the lower to mid 70s. We have moved past the warmest part of the year.  At first look at the weekend, it looks good for being outdoors.

It looks like things will remain warm through the weekend with little to no threat at rain. This will be a great weekend to be outside! So get outside! Okay here are the specifics…

Friday

The high pressure to the east, in the Mid-Atlantic states will continue to pump warm, humid are up into the western Great Lakes. No more that puffy clouds will be in the sky and the high temperatures will  be in the mid to upper 80s.

Saturday

The high stays in place and continues it’s transport of warm, humid air out of the Gulf of Mexico. The low to the west is helping to reinforce the warm air from the south. High temperatures are expected to be in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Sunday

The high continues with the warm, humid air to move into the region, with the low to the west still helping to reinforce the warmth that we will have from Saturday. So again we have mostly sunny skies with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. I wouldn’t be surprised if northern lower Michigan was in the lower 90s and eastern upper Michigan was right around 90.  The only relatively cooler places would be along the Great Lakes. The water temperature of Lake Michigan is in the lower 70s near northwest lower, and in the mid 60s in eastern upper. Of course, with south winds, the warmer water will move toward eastern upper. The beach along US-2 will be great for that day. Looking at the wind forecasts for Sunday afternoon, there is the potential for small craft advisories in northern Lake Michigan, especially near eastern upper Michigan. If that comes about, then there is an increased likelihood of rip currents along the US-2 shore.  So beware when swimming along that area.

Outlook for 21-23 August 2009

I don’t usually post the graphics from the 8-14 day outlook, because they can change a bit, however for the last two days this idea has been coming out.It looks like we will have another pattern shift that will bring back into the below normal temperature weather pattern that we have been seeing this year. It looks like the cold front that will pass through here on the Monday to Tuesday time frame will be the culprit. The computer models have been advertising this cooling. This may impact some outdoor activities, the upside is that it is expected to be below normal in precipitation for that weekend as well. So swimming may be impacted by the cold air, but hiking, camping, and other outdoor activities won’t be curtailed all that much.